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Current Account Sustainability in the US: What Do We Really Know About It?

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Author Info
Dimitris K. Christopoulos
Miguel León-Ledesma ()

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Abstract

We revisit the debate on the sustainability of the current account dynamics in the US. Using the concept of sustainability as the ability to meet the long run intertemporal budget constraint, we test for unit roots in the US current account for the 1960-2004 period. We argue that there are several reasons to believe that the current account may follow a non-linear behaviour under the null of stationarity. This is confirmed by a set of non-linearity tests. We then fit an ESTAR model to the current account dynamics and reject the null of non-stationarity. Hence, we conclude in favour of sustainability. Furthermore, our results reveal that only for the period 1974-1992 we can find significant deviations of the current account from equilibrium and a slower speed of mean reversion.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/0412.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 0412.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0412

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
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Related research
Keywords: current account sustainability stationarity non-linear models

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios & Merih Uctum, 2003. "An Investigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non Linear Stationarity Tests," Working Papers 485, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century of Current Account Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Medeiros, Marcelo & Veiga, Alvaro, 2000. "Diagnostic Checking in a Flexible Nonlinear Time Series Model," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 386, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 15 Jan 2001.
    Other versions:
  5. Ronald I. McKinnon, 2001. "The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-1), pages 227-241. [Downloadable!]
  6. marzia raybaudi & martin sola & fabio spagnolod, 2003. "Red Signals: Trade Deficits and the Current Account," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-14, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ludlow, Jorge & Enders, Walter, 2000. "Estimating non-linear ARMA models using Fourier coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-347. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. marzia raybaudi & martin sola & fabio spagnolod, 2003. "Red Signals: Trade Deficits and the Current Account," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-14, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  13. Shin, Dong Wan & Lee, Oesook, 2001. "Tests for Asymmetry in Possibly Nonstationary Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 233-44, April.
  14. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios & Merih Uctum, 2004. "An Investigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non Linear Nonstationarity Tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1200-1200. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Ronald McKinnon, 2001. "The International Dollar Standard and Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Working Papers 01013, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bariyah, Nurul & Lau, Evan, 2008. "Long Run Sustainability of Sarawak- West Kalimantan Cross-Border Trade Flows," MPRA Paper 7339, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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