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Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games

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Author Info
Flavia Cortelezzi ()
Giovanni Villani ()
Abstract

Aim of this paper is to analyse the equilibrium strategies of two firms investing in a new technology, when the probability of successful implementation is uncertain and market shares are asymmetric. In particular, we are able to consider three key feature of a new technology adoption. First, it is, at least partially, irreversible. Second, once realized, there is uncertainty about the probability of a successful implementation. Third, the profit flow generated by such an investment is subject to uncertainty according to the evolution of demand function. The first firm to enter the market sustaines the investment cost earlier, but can benefit of a higher market share with respect to the competitor. The follower has just to decide if and when realize the investment. He benefits from the resolution of uncertainty, but he suffers of a reduction in its market share. Using the method of option pricing theory, we address this issue at two levels. First, we model the investment decision of a non-cooperative firm (decentralised case) as a dynamic stochastic game. Then, we solve for the sequential monopolist as a benchmark case. We find the interaction of pre-emption and uncertainty can actually hasten, rather than delay, investment, contrary to the usual presumption.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia in its series Quaderni DSEMS with number 14-2007.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ufg:qdsems:14-2007

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Related research
Keywords: Real Options; Stopping Timing Game; Asymmetric Demand.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1999. "Effects of strategic interactions on the option value of waiting," Discussion Paper 92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dennis R. Capozza & Yuming Li, 2001. "Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 503-519. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mason, R. & Weeds, H., 2000. "Networks, Options and Preemption," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 575, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Capozza, Dennis & Li, Yuming, 1994. "The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 889-904, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Quigg, Laura, 1993. " Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 621-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Weeds, H., 1999. "Sleeping Patents and Computsory Licensing: An Options Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 577, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2000. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements : a real options approach," Discussion Paper 52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Weeds, Helen, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(3), pages 729-47, July.
    Other versions:
  9. Williams, Joseph T, 1991. "Real Estate Development as an Option," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 191-208, June.
  10. Dutta, P.K. & Rustichini, A., 1991. "A Theory of stopping Time Games with Applications to Product Innovations and Asset Sales," RCER Working Papers 263, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  11. Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. repec:fth:tilbur:9992 is not listed on IDEAS
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