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Networks, Options and Preemption

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  • Robin Mason

    (University of Southampton)

  • Helen Weeds

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

This paper examines the irreversible adoption of a technology whose returns are uncertain, when there is an advantage to being the first adopter, but a network advantage to adopting when others also adopt. There are two main results. First, conditional on adoption being sequential, the follower adopts at the incorrect point, compared with the cooperative solution. The leader adopts at the cooperative point when there is no preemption, and too early if there is preemption. Secondly, there is insufficient simultaneous adoption in equilibrium. The paper examines how these inefficiencies vary as the degree of uncertainty and network effects change. Interesting interactions between the various factors are found. For example, the analysis raises the interesting possibility that the introduction of a small amount of uncertainty can cause the first mover to adopt the technology earlier.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1721.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1721

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Cited by:
  1. Grzegorz Pawlina & Peter M. Kort, 2006. "Real Options in an Asymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from Your Competitive Disadvantage?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, 03.
  2. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
  3. Levine, Paul L & Rickman, Neil & Tzavara, Dionisia, 2002. "Market Entry and Roll-out With Product Differentiation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2001. "Strategic Capital Budgeting: Asset Replacement Under Uncertainty," Discussion Paper 2001-4, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Tyrone Lin, 2010. "Assessment of decision-making regarding market entry/exit for technology innovation," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 447-457, April.
  6. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2007. "Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.

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