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Networks, Options and Preemption

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  • Mason, Robin
  • Weeds, Helen

Abstract

This paper examines the irreversible adoption of a technology whose returns are uncertain, when there is an advantage to being the first adopter, but a network advantage to adopting when others also do so. Two patterns of adoption emerge: sequential, in which the leader aggressively preempts its rival; and a more accommodating outcome in which the firms adopt simultaneously. There are two main results. First, conditional on adoption being sequential, the follower adopts at the incorrect point, compared to the co-operative solution. The leader adopts at the co-operative point when there is no preemption, and too early if there is preemption. Secondly, there is insufficient simultaneous adoption in equilibrium. The paper examines the effect of uncertainty, network effects and preemption on these inefficiencies. Standard results do not always hold. For example, the analysis raises the unusual possibility that an increase in uncertainty may cause the first mover to adopt the technology earlier.

Suggested Citation

  • Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2000. "Networks, Options and Preemption," Economic Research Papers 269346, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:269346
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269346
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
    2. Tyrone Lin, 2010. "Assessment of decision-making regarding market entry/exit for technology innovation," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 447-457, April.
    3. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2007. "Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.

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