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Irreversible investment in alternative projects

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  • Jean-Paul Décamps

    ()

  • Thomas Mariotti

    ()

  • Stéphane Villeneuve

    ()

Abstract

We study the problem of a risk-neutral decision-maker who has to choose among two alternative investment projects of different scales under output price uncertainty. We provide parameter restrictions under which the optimal investment strategy is not a trigger strategy and the optimal investment region is dichotomous. Whenever the decision-maker has the opportunity to switch from the smaller scale to the larger scale project, the dichotomy of the investment region can persist even when the volatility of the output price process becomes large. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00199-005-0629-2
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 28 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 425-448

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:28:y:2006:i:2:p:425-448

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Related research

Keywords: Investment under uncertainty; Optimal stopping.;

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References

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  1. Farzin, Y.H. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1998. "Optimal timing of technology adoption," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-74049, Tilburg University.
  2. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
  3. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
  4. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  5. Jean-Paul Decamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stephane Villeneuve, 2003. "Investment Timing under Incomplete Information," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 444, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  6. Pindyck, Robert S., 1986. "Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm," Working papers 1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  7. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
  8. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1998. "A model of sequential investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 437-463, March.
  9. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  11. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
  12. Dixit, Avinash, 1993. "Choosing among alternative discrete investment projects under uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 265-268.
  13. Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
  2. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2010. "The Timing of Takeovers in Growing and Declining Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Chronopoulos, Michail & De Reyck, Bert & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2011. "Optimal investment under operational flexibility, risk aversion, and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 221-237, August.
  4. Marvasti, Akbar, 2013. "The role of price expectations and legal uncertainties in ocean mineral, exploration activities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 68-74.
  5. Siddiqui, Afzal & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2008. "How to Proceed with Competing Alternative Energy Technologies: a Real Options Analysis," MPRA Paper 15502, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 May 2009.
  6. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2013. "Strategic Capacity Investment Under uncertainty," Discussion Paper 2013-003, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," CORE Discussion Papers 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Michi NISHIHARA & Takashi SHIBATA, 2012. "The effects of external financing costs on investment timing and sizing decisions," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 12-07, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  9. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
  10. BOBTCHEFF Catherine & VILLENEUVE Stephane, 2006. "Irreversible Investment in Competitive Projects: A New Motive for Waiting to Invest," LERNA Working Papers 06.20.213, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  11. Somayeh Heydari & Nick Ovenden & Afzal Siddiqui, 2012. "Real options analysis of investment in carbon capture and sequestration technology," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 109-138, February.
  12. Décamps, Jean-Paul & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2005. "Optimal Dividend Policy and Growth Option," IDEI Working Papers 369, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  13. Julieta Caunedo, 2013. "Industry Dynamics, Investment and Business Cycles," 2013 Meeting Papers 1078, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Maribu, Karl Magnus & Wangensteen, Ivar, 2005. "Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty," MPRA Paper 218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
  15. Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.

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