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An Equilibrium Analysis of Real Estate

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Author Info
Steven R. Grenadier
Abstract

This paper provides a unified equilibrium approach to valuing a wide variety of commercial real estate lease contracts. Using a game-theoretic variant of real options analysis, the underlying real estate asset market is modeled as a continuous-time Nash equilibrium in which developers make construction decisions under demand uncertainty. Then, using the economic notion that leasing simply represents the purchase of the use of the asset over a specified time frame, I use a contingent-claims approach to value many of the most common real estate leasing arrangements. In particular, the model provides closed-form solutions for the equilibrium valuation of leases with options to purchase, pre-leasing, gross and net leases, leases with cancellation options, ground leases, escalation clauses, lease concessions and sale-leasebacks.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9475.

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Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9475

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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  1. Grenadier, Steven R., 1995. "Valuing lease contracts A real-options approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 297-331, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lewis, Craig M. & Schallheim, James S., 1992. "Are Debt and Leases Substitutes?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(04), pages 497-511, December. [Downloadable!]
  4. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1976. "Leasing, Buying, and the Cost of Capital Services," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 761-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David Dale-Johnson, 2001. "Long-Term Ground Leases, the Redevelopment Option and Contract Incentives," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 451-484. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Williams, Joseph T, 1993. "Equilibrium and Options on Real Assets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 825-50. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Brent W. Ambrose & Patric H. Hendershott & Malgorzata M. Klosek, 2000. "Pricing Upward-Only Adjusting Leases," NBER Working Papers 7622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Capozza, Dennis R & Sick, Gordon A, 1991. "Valuing Long-Term Leases: The Option to Redevelop," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 209-23, June.
  11. Baldursson, Fridrik M., 1998. "Irreversible investment under uncertainty in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 627-644, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Triantis, Alexander J & Hodder, James E, 1990. " Valuing Flexibility as a Complex Option," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 549-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Smith, Clifford W, Jr & Wakeman, L MacDonald, 1985. " Determinants of Corporate Leasing Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 895-908, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-14, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Grenadier, Steven R, 1999. "Information Revelation through Option Exercise," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 95-129.
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