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An Equilibrium Analysis of Real Estate

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  • Steven R. Grenadier
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    Abstract

    This paper provides a unified equilibrium approach to valuing a wide variety of commercial real estate lease contracts. Using a game-theoretic variant of real options analysis, the underlying real estate asset market is modeled as a continuous-time Nash equilibrium in which developers make construction decisions under demand uncertainty. Then, using the economic notion that leasing simply represents the purchase of the use of the asset over a specified time frame, I use a contingent-claims approach to value many of the most common real estate leasing arrangements. In particular, the model provides closed-form solutions for the equilibrium valuation of leases with options to purchase, pre-leasing, gross and net leases, leases with cancellation options, ground leases, escalation clauses, lease concessions and sale-leasebacks.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9475.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9475.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2003
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    Publication status: published as Grenadier, Steven R. "An Equilibrium Analysis of Real Estate Leases." The Journal of Business 78, 4 (2005).
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9475

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    1. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
    2. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    4. Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1985. "Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions," NBER Working Papers 1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Grenadier, Steven R, 1999. "Information Revelation through Option Exercise," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 95-129.
    6. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1976. "Leasing, Buying, and the Cost of Capital Services," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 761-86, June.
    7. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
    8. Smith, Clifford W, Jr & Wakeman, L MacDonald, 1985. " Determinants of Corporate Leasing Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 895-908, July.
    9. Grenadier, Steven R., 1995. "Valuing lease contracts A real-options approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 297-331, July.
    10. Capozza, Dennis R & Sick, Gordon A, 1991. "Valuing Long-Term Leases: The Option to Redevelop," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 209-23, June.
    11. Baldursson, Fridrik M., 1998. "Irreversible investment under uncertainty in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 627-644, April.
    12. Constantinides, George M., 1984. "Warrant exercise and bond conversion in competitive markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-397, September.
    13. Williams, Joseph T, 1993. "Equilibrium and Options on Real Assets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 825-50.
    14. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    15. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
    16. David Dale-Johnson, 2001. "Long-Term Ground Leases, the Redevelopment Option and Contract Incentives," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 451-484.
    17. Triantis, Alexander J & Hodder, James E, 1990. " Valuing Flexibility as a Complex Option," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 549-65, June.
    18. Ambrose, Brent W & Hendershott, Patric H & Klosek, Malgorzata, 2002. "Pricing Upward-Only Adjusting Leases," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 33-49, July.
    19. Lewis, Craig M. & Schallheim, James S., 1992. "Are Debt and Leases Substitutes?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(04), pages 497-511, December.
    20. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-14, June.
    21. Nalin Kulatilaka & Enrico C. Perotti, 1998. "Strategic Growth Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1021-1031, August.
    22. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Brent Ambrose & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Credit Risk and the Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Reduced Form Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 281-298, October.
    2. Clapham, Eric & Gunnelin, Åke, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 16, Institute for Financial Research.

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