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Time-To-Build Investment and Uncertainty in Oligopoly

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Author Info

  • Gerda Dewit

    (National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

  • Dermot Leahy

    (University College Dublin)

Abstract

This paper examines how time to build alters strategic investment behaviour under oligopoly. Facing demand uncertainty, firms decide whether to invest early or wait until uncertainty has been resolved. A game that captures time-to-build investment is contrasted with another one in which investment is quick in place. We show that a time lag between when and how much to invest reduces the incentive to delay. When investment requires time to complete, early investment occurs more to avoid becoming a follower than to become a strategic investment leader. The opposite is true with quick-in-place investment. A brief welfare analysis is provided.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2002/WP02.07.pdf
File Function: First version, 2002
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School Of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200207.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 19 Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200207

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Related research

Keywords: Time-to-build Investment; Uncertainty; Strategic Commitment; Flexibility; Oligopoly;

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References

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  1. Gerda Dewit & Dermot Leahy, 2001. "Rivalry In Uncertain Export Markets: Commitment Versus Flexibility," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1050201, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  2. Sadanand, Asha & Sadanand, Venkatraman, 1996. "Firm Scale and the Endogenous Timing of Entry: a Choice between Commitment and Flexibility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 516-530, August.
  3. Marcel Boyer & Michel Moreaux, 1997. "Capacity Commitment versus Flexibility," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 347-376, 06.
  4. Ghemawat, Pankaj, 1984. "Capacity Expansion in the Titanium Dioxide Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 145-63, December.
  5. Grossman, Gene & Maggi, Giovanni, 1998. "Free Trade Vs. Strategic Trade: A Peek into Pandora's Box," CEPR Discussion Papers 1784, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  7. Hamilton, J.H. & Slutsky, S.M., 1988. "Endogenous Timing In Duopoly Games: Stackelberg Or Cournot Equilibria," Papers 88-4, Florida - College of Business Administration.
  8. Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1985. "Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions," NBER Working Papers 1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Spencer, Barbara J. & Brander, James A., 1992. "Pre-commitment and flexibility : Applications to oligopoly theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1601-1626, December.
  10. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-22, June.
  11. Dewit, Gerda & Leahy, Dermot, 2004. "Rivalry in uncertain export markets: commitment versus flexibility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 195-209, October.
  12. Elie Appelbaum & Chin Lim, 1985. "Contestable Markets under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(1), pages 28-40, Spring.
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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