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Rivalry in Uncertain Export Markets: Commitment versus Flexibility

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  • Dewit, Gerda
  • Leahy, Dermot

Abstract

This Paper examines optimal trade policy in a two-period oligopoly model, with a home and a foreign firm choosing capital and output. Demand uncertainty, resolved in period two, gives rise to a trade-off between strategic commitment and flexibility in the firms’ investment decisions. When the government can commit to an export subsidy, it may choose to over- or under-subsidize to deter private-sector capital commitment. When the government chooses its trade policy flexibly, the relative value of commitment to the unsubsidized foreign firm is greater than to the subsidized home firm. Finally, a flexible subsidy regime is compared to free trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2771.

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Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2771

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Keywords: Demand Uncertainty; Flexibility; Strategic Commitment; Trade Policy;

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References

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  1. Barbara J. Spencer & James A. Brander, 1982. "International R&D Rivalry and Industrial Strategy," Working Papers 518, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Neary, J. Peter, 1994. "Cost asymmetries in international subsidy games: Should governments help winners or losers?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3-4), pages 197-218, November.
  3. Hamilton, J.H. & Slutsky, S.M., 1988. "Endogenous Timing In Duopoly Games: Stackelberg Or Cournot Equilibria," Papers 88-4, Florida - College of Business Administration.
  4. Boyer, Marcel & Moreaux, Michel, 1987. "Being a leader or a follower: Reflections on the distribution of roles in duopoly," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 175-192.
  5. D Leahy & J.P. Neary, 1998. "Strategic Trade and Industrial PolicyTowards Dynamic Oligopolies," CEP Discussion Papers dp0409, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Karp, Larry S. & Perloff, Jeffrey M., 1995. "The failure of strategic industrial policies due to manipulation by firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16.
  7. Gene M. Grossman & Giovanni Maggi, 1997. "Free Trade vs. Strategic Trade: A Peek into Pandora's Box," NBER Working Papers 6211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Steve Dowrick, 1986. "von Stackelberg and Cournot Duopoly: Choosing Roles," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(2), pages 251-260, Summer.
  9. Rodrik, Dani, 1992. "Political economy and development policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 329-336, April.
  10. Neary, J Peter & O'Sullivan, Paul, 1999. " Beat 'Em or Join 'Em? Export Subsidies versus International Research Joint Ventures in Oligopolistic Markets," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(4), pages 577-96, December.
  11. James A. Brander, 1995. "Strategic Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 5020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. J Peter Neary; & Paul O'Sullivan, 1997. "Beat 'em or Join 'em?: Export Subsidies Versus International Research Joint Ventures in Oligopolistic Markets," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n700897, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  13. David de Meza, 1986. "Export Subsidies and High Productivity: Cause or Effect?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 347-50, May.
  14. Jonathan Eaton & Gene M. Grossman, 1983. "Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy Under Oligopoly," NBER Working Papers 1236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. James A. Brander & Barbara J. Spencer, 1984. "Export Subsidies and International Market Share Rivalry," NBER Working Papers 1464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Gal-Or, Esther, 1985. "First Mover and Second Mover Advantages," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 649-53, October.
  17. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1995. "Strategic Export Promotion in the Absence of Government Precommitment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 407-26, May.
  18. Gerda Dewit & Dermot Leahy, 2001. "Fighting over Uncertain Demand: Investment Commitment versus Flexibility," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1060201, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  19. Arvan, Lanny, 1991. "Flexibility versus commitment in strategic trade policy under uncertainty : A model of endogenous policy leadership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 341-355, November.
  20. Cooper, Russell & Riezman, Raymond, 1989. "Uncertainty and the Choice of Trade Policy in Oligopolistic Industrie s," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 129-40, January.
  21. Spencer, Barbara J. & Brander, James A., 1992. "Pre-commitment and flexibility : Applications to oligopoly theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1601-1626, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gerda Dewit & Dermot Leahy, 2001. "Fighting over Uncertain Demand: Investment Commitment versus Flexibility," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1060201, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  2. Udo Broll & Jack E. Wahl & Christoph Wessel, 2011. "Export, Exchange Rate Risk and Hedging: The Duopoly Case," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(4), pages 490-502, November.
  3. Dewit, Gerda & Leahy, Dermot, 2006. "Investment timing under uncertainty in oligopoly: Symmetry or leadership?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-19.
  4. Gerda Dewit & Dermot Leahy, 2011. "Short‐Run Policy Commitment When Investment Timing Is Endogenous: ‘More Harm Than Good?’," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 82-107, 01.
  5. Gerda Dewit & Dermot Leahy, 2002. "Time-To-Build Investment and Uncertainty in Oligopoly," Working Papers 200207, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  6. Leahy, Dermot & Neary, J Peter, 2010. "Oligopoly and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 8172, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Takauchi, Kazuhiro, 2012. "International R&D Rivalry with a Shipping Firm," MPRA Paper 36843, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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