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Dual' gravity: Using spatial econometrics to control for multilateral resistance

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Author Info
Kristian Behrens (CORE, Universite catholique de Louvain)
Cem Ertur (LEO, Universite d'Orleans, France)
Wilfried Koch (LEG, Universite de Bouugogne, France)

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Abstract

We propose a quantity-based 'dual' version of the gravity equation that yields an estimating equation with both cross-sectional interdependence and spatially lagged error terms. Such an equation can be concisely estimated using spatial econometric techniques. We illustrate this methodology by applying it to the Canada-U.S. data set used previously, among others, by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) and Feenstra (2002, 2004). Our key result is to show that controlling directly for spatial interdependence across trade flows, as suggested by theory, significantly reduces border effects because it captures 'multilateral resistance'. Using a spatial autoregressive moving average specification, we find that border effects between the U.S. and Canada are smaller than in previous studies: about 8 for Canadian provinces and about 1.3 for U.S. states. Yet, heterogeneous coefficient estimations reveal that there is much variation across provinces and states.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-501.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2007cf501

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  1. BEHRENS, Kristian & LAMORGESE, Andrea R. & OTTAVIANO, Gianmarco I.P. & TABUCHI, Takatoshi, 2005. "Testing the Ôhome market effectÕ in a multi-country world," CORE Discussion Papers 2005055, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  2. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2004. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael Anderson & Stephen Smith, 1999. "Canadian Provinces in World Trade: Engagement and Detachment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 22-38, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Redding, Stephen & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Economic geography and international inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Feenstra, Robert C, 2002. "Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 491-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Melitz, Marc J, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Brueckner, Jan K., 1998. "Testing for Strategic Interaction Among Local Governments: The Case of Growth Controls," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 438-467, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," NBER Working Papers 12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2002. "Illusory Border Effects: Distance Mismeasurement Inflates Estimates of Home Bias in Trade," Working Papers 2002-01, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  12. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2005. "Growth, Technological Interdependence and Spatial Externalities - Theory and Evidence," ERSA conference papers ersa05p651, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Millimet, Daniel & Henderson, Daniel, 2006. "Is Gravity Linear?," Departmental Working Papers 0517, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Case, Anne C. & Rosen, Harvey S. & Hines, James Jr., 1993. "Budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence : Evidence from the states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 285-307, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2008. "Spatial Econometric Modeling Of Origin-Destination Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 941-967. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ramon Moreno & Bharat Trehan, 1997. "Location and the growth of nations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 97-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Joris Pinkse & Margaret E. Slade & Craig Brett, 2002. "Spatial Price Competition: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 1111-1153, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. John F. Helliwell & Geneviève Verdier, 2001. "Measuring internal trade distances: a new method applied to estimate provincial border effects in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1024-1041, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Davies, Ronald B. & Waddell, Glen R. & Naughton, Helen T., 2007. "FDI in space: Spatial autoregressive relationships in foreign direct investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1303-1325, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Behrens, Kristian & Lamorgese, Andrea & Ottaviano, Gianmarco Ireo Paolo & Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 2004. "Testing the Home Market Effect in a Multi-Country World: The Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 4468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies & Helen T. Naughton & Glen R. Waddell, 2005. "Spacey Parents: Spatial Autoregressive Patterns in Inbound FDI," NBER Working Papers 11466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. repec:rus:hseeco:122439 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Marc J. Melitz & Giancarlo I. P. Ottaviano, 2008. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 75(1), pages 295-316, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jacob A. Bikker, 2009. "An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade," Working Papers 09-17, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Anthony Briant & Pierre-Philippe Combes & Miren Lafourcade, 2009. "Product complexity, quality of institutions and the pro-trade effect of immigrants," PSE Working Papers 2009-06, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & JI, Zheng & Obashi, Ayako, 2009. "Agglomeration versus Fragmentation:A Comparison of East Asia and Europe," IDE Discussion Papers 212, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO). [Downloadable!]
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