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An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade

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Author Info
Jacob A. Bikker ()

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Abstract

The traditional gravity model has been applied many times to international trade flows, especially in order to analyze trade creation and trade diversion. However, there are two fundamental objections to the model: it cannot describe substitutions between flows and it lacks a cogent theoretical foundation. A newly developed model, the Extended Gravity Model (EGM), overcomes these objections. The model shares characteristics of the models of Bergstrand (1985), Andersen and Van Wincoop (2003), and Redding and Scott (2003). An empirical test on a world-wide sample of 19 thousand 2005 trade flows strongly rejects the gravity model in favour of the EGM. The empirical analysis also shows that the gravity model widely overestimates the influence of the determinants of international trade, which is due to strong substitution between trade flows, reducing the initial (gravity model) effects. Substitution determines both trade creation and trade diversion. The EGM encompasses several models originating in regional economics and can be applied usefully to a wide set of subjects.

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Paper provided by Utrecht School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 09-17.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:0917

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Related research
Keywords: bilateral trade; imports; exports; spatial allocation; trade creation; trade diversion; distance; market access; supplier access; multilateral resistance terms; remoteness indices;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F1 - International Economics - - Trade
R12 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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  1. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. KOCH, Wilfried & ERTUR, Cem & BEHRENS, Kristian, 2007. "Dual gravity : Using spatial econometrics to control for multilateral resistance," LEG - Document de travail - Economie 2007-03, LEG, Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Michael Anderson & Stephen Smith, 1999. "Canadian Provinces in World Trade: Engagement and Detachment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 22-38, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Redding, Stephen & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Economic geography and international inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Feenstra, Robert C, 2002. "Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 491-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bikker, Jacob A, 1987. "An International Trade Flow Model with Substitution: An Extension of the Gravity Model," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 315-37.
  11. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2002. "Illusory Border Effects: Distance Mismeasurement Inflates Estimates of Home Bias in Trade," Working Papers 2002-01, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  12. Teekens, R & Koerts, J, 1972. "Some Statistical Implications of the Log Transformation of Multiplicative Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(5), pages 793-819, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hervé Boulhol & Alain de Serres & Margit Molnar, 2008. "The Contribution of Economic Geography to GDP Per Capita," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 602, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. Geraci, Vincent J & Prewo, Wilfried, 1977. "Bilateral Trade Flows and Transport Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 67-74, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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