IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/use/tkiwps/0917.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade

Author

Listed:
  • J.A. Bikker

Abstract

The traditional gravity model has been applied many times to international trade flows, especially in order to analyze trade creation and trade diversion. However, there are two fundamental objections to the model: it cannot describe substitutions between flows and it lacks a cogent theoretical foundation. A newly developed model, the Extended Gravity Model (EGM), overcomes these objections. The model shares characteristics of the models of Bergstrand (1985), Andersen and Van Wincoop (2003), and Redding and Scott (2003). An empirical test on a world-wide sample of 19 thousand 2005 trade flows strongly rejects the gravity model in favour of the EGM. The empirical analysis also shows that the gravity model widely overestimates the influence of the determinants of international trade, which is due to strong substitution between trade flows, reducing the initial (gravity model) effects. Substitution determines both trade creation and trade diversion. The EGM encompasses several models originating in regional economics and can be applied usefully to a wide set of subjects.

Suggested Citation

  • J.A. Bikker, 2009. "An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade," Working Papers 09-17, Utrecht School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:0917
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/309569/09_17_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob A. Bikker & Aart F. De Vos, 1992. "An international trade flow model with zero observations: an extension of the Tobit model," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 135, pages 379-404.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    3. Alan V. Deardorff, 2014. "Local comparative advantage: Trade costs and the pattern of trade," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 10(1), pages 9-35, March.
    4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    5. Thierry Mayer & Keith Head, 2002. "Illusory Border Effects: Distance Mismeasurement Inflates Estimates of Home Bias in Trade," Working Papers 2002-01, CEPII research center.
    6. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    7. Kristian Behrens & Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2012. "‘Dual’ Gravity: Using Spatial Econometrics To Control For Multilateral Resistance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 773-794, August.
    8. Geraci, Vincent J & Prewo, Wilfried, 1977. "Bilateral Trade Flows and Transport Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 67-74, February.
    9. Pelzman, Joseph, 1977. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance: 1954-70," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 713-722, September.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    11. J A Bikker & A F de Vos, 1992. "A Regional Supply and Demand Model for Inpatient Hospital Care," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 24(8), pages 1097-1116, August.
    12. Redding, Stephen & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Economic geography and international inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
    13. Redding, Stephen & Schott, Peter K., 2003. "Distance, skill deepening and development: will peripheral countries ever get rich?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 515-541, December.
    14. Alan V. Deardorff, 2011. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 24, pages 267-293, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Syrquin, M. & Chenery, H.B., 1989. "Patterns Of Development, 1950 To 1983," World Bank - Discussion Papers 41, World Bank.
    17. Robert C. Feenstra, 2002. "Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 491-506, November.
    18. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    20. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1998. "The Regionalization of the World Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran98-1, March.
    21. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    22. Michael Anderson & Stephen Smith, 1999. "Canadian Provinces in World Trade: Engagement and Detachment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 22-38, February.
    23. Bikker, Jacob A, 1987. "An International Trade Flow Model with Substitution: An Extension of the Gravity Model," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 315-337.
    24. Teekens, R & Koerts, J, 1972. "Some Statistical Implications of the Log Transformation of Multiplicative Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(5), pages 793-819, September.
    25. Jacob A. Bikker, 1987. "An International Trade Flow Model with Substitution: An Extension of the Gravity Model," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 315-337, August.
    26. Maarten Bosker & Harry Garretsen, 2007. "Trade Costs, Market Access and Economic Geography: Why the Empirical Specification of Trade Costs Matters," CESifo Working Paper Series 2071, CESifo.
    27. Hervé Boulhol & Alain de Serres & Margit Molnár, 2008. "The contribution of economic geography to GDP per capita," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 1-37.
    28. Robert M. Stern & Jonathan Francis & Bruce Schumacher, 1976. "Price Elasticities in International Trade," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-03137-5.
    29. James E. Anderson, 2010. "The Incidence of Gravity," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 732, Boston College Department of Economics.
    30. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thi Hong Hanh Bui & Qiting Chen, 2017. "An Analysis of Factors Influencing Rice Export in Vietnam Based on Gravity Model," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(3), pages 830-844, September.
    2. Mshengu, Scelo & Kalaba, Mmatlou, 2021. "Potential Effects of the United Kingdom's Departure from the European Union on South African Citrus Exports: A Case of Non-Tariff Measures," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315245, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kristian Behrens & Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2012. "‘Dual’ Gravity: Using Spatial Econometrics To Control For Multilateral Resistance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 773-794, August.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    3. Magerman, Glenn & Studnicka, Zuzanna & Van Hove, Jan, 2016. "Distance and border effects in international trade: A comparison of estimation methods," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-31.
    4. Daniel L. Millimet & Thomas Osang, 2007. "Do state borders matter for U.S. intranational trade? The role of history and internal migration," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 93-126, February.
    5. Joras Ferwerda & Mark Kattenberg & Han-Hsin Chang & Brigitte Unger & Loek Groot & Jacob A. Bikker, 2013. "Gravity models of trade-based money laundering," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(22), pages 3170-3182, August.
    6. Cafiso, Gianluca, 2007. "The Geographic Space in International Trade: from Gravity to New Economic Geography," MPRA Paper 20269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Joras Ferwerda & Mark Kattenberg & Han-Hsin Chang & Brigitte Unger & Loek Groot & Jacob A. Bikker, 2013. "Gravity models of trade-based money laundering," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(22), pages 3170-3182, August.
    8. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2012. "Trade Costs and Economic Development," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 88(2), pages 137-163, April.
    9. Whalley, John & Xin, Xian, 2009. "Home and regional biases and border effects in Armington type models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 309-319, March.
    10. Simone Juhasz Silva & Douglas Nelson, 2012. "Does Aid Cause Trade? Evidence from an Asymmetric Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 545-577, May.
    11. Jan Möhlmann & Sjef Ederveen & Henri L.F. de Groot & Gert-Jan M. Linders, 2009. "Intangible Barriers to International Trade: A Sectoral Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-021/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Pajot & Jean-Michel Pasteels, 2002. "Potentiels de commerce entre économies hétérogènes : un petit mode d'emploi des modèles de gravité," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 115-139.
    13. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    14. Juliette Milgram, 2003. "Quantitative Restrictions on Clothing Imports: Impact and Determinants of the Common Trade Policy Towards Developing Countries," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/04, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    15. James Harrigan, 2001. "Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?," NBER Working Papers 8675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Stephen Redding & Anthony Venables, 2004. "Geography and Export Performance: External Market Access and Internal Supply Capacity," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 95-127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Khan, Imran Ullah & Kalirajan, Kaliappa, 2011. "The impact of trade costs on exports: An empirical modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1341-1347, May.
    18. Kristian Behrens & Giordano Mion & Yasusada Murata & Jens Südekum, 2014. "Trade, Wages, And Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1305-1348, November.
    19. Andres Faiña & Jesus Lopez-Rodríguez, 2003. "Population Potentials and Development Levels: Empirical Findings in the European Union," ERSA conference papers ersa03p30, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Mario A. Maggioni & T. Erika Uberti, 2006. "International networks of knowledge flows: an econometric analysis," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2005-19, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:use:tkiwps:0917. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marina Muilwijk (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eiruunl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.