IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20070051.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?

Author

Listed:
  • Hendrik P. van Dalen

    (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam)

Abstract

How does global aging affect the convergence in global economic development? Both the developing and developed world will be characterized for the coming decades by aging populations. Changes in the age distribution of a population are an important determinant of economic performance as they affect wealth accumulation and dependency burdens, yielding a demographic dividend of extra growth. During the twenty years from 1975 to 2005 Europe and the US have benefited from a strong demographic dividend. However, in the decades to come this effect will be reversed and the driving force behind the wealth of nations has to be sought elsewhere. Africa and, to some extent, India might benefit from the demographic dividend. However, this potential growth phase may well disappear if supporting conditions for growth are absent. Large-scale migration is not expected to be a sustainable solution to unbalanced global economic developments. Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Official Development Assistance (ODA) will remain necessary capital flows for the developing world in the near future. Remittances offer no structural solution to reduction of poverty as these funds flow to a selective group of families and are allocated generally to consumption rather than to investment purposes. Migration of a temporary nature in conjunction with offshore outsourcing of services and production may offer a solution for the dilemmas of population and development, which OECD donors face in offering development assistance and designing immigration policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hendrik P. van Dalen, 2007. "Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20070051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/07051.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Demeny, 2004. "Population Futures for the Next Three Hundred Years: Soft Landing or Surprises to Come?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 507-517, September.
    2. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason & Timothy Miller, 2003. "Saving, Wealth and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 339-358, September.
    3. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
    4. Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 510-530, August.
    5. Kaul, Inge & Conceicao, Pedro & Le Goulven, Katell & Mendoza, Ronald U. (ed.), 2003. "Providing Global Public Goods: Managing Globalization," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195157413, Decembrie.
    6. Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2005. "Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1645-1669, October.
    7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    8. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    9. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    10. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
    11. Barry Chiswick & Timothy J. Hatton, 2003. "International Migration and the Integration of Labor Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 65-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Immigrant quality and assimilation: A review of the US literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(2), pages 239-252.
    13. Mary Amiti & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Fear of service outsourcing: is it justified? [‘Location of vertically linked industries: agglomeration versus comparative advantage’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 308-347.
    14. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1984. "Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility : Calculations and policy implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-75.
    15. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    16. Hendrik Dalen & George Groenewold & Jeannette Schoorl, 2005. "Out of Africa: what drives the pressure to emigrate?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 741-778, November.
    17. Ana María Iregui, 2000. "Efficiency Gains from the Elimination of Global Resstrictions on Labour Mobility: An Analisis Using a Multiregional CGE Model," Borradores de Economia 146, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2006. "International Migration in the Long Run: Positive Selection, Negative Selection, and Policy," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Federico Foders (ed.), Labor Mobility and the World Economy, pages 1-31, Springer.
    19. Maureen Lewis, 2005. "Addressing the Challenge of HIV/AIDS: Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Institutional Issues," Working Papers 58, Center for Global Development.
    20. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
    21. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    22. Hendrik P. van Dalen & George Groenewold & Tineke Fokkema, 2005. "Remittances and their Effect on Emigration Intentions in Egypt, Morocco and Turkey," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-030/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    23. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
    24. van Dalen, Hendrik P., 2008. "Designing Global Collective Action in Population and HIV/AIDS Programs, 1983-2002: Has Anything Changed?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 362-382, March.
    25. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    26. Gould, David M, 1994. "Immigrant Links to the Home Country: Empirical Implications for U.S. Bilateral Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 302-316, May.
    27. Ronald Lee & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1997. "Death and Taxes: Longer life, consumption, and social security," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(1), pages 67-81, February.
    28. Edward E Leamer & Michael Storper, 2001. "The Economic Geography of the Internet Age," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 32(4), pages 641-665, December.
    29. Jayaraman, Rajshri & Kanbur, Ravi, 1999. "International Public Goods and the Case for Foreign Aid," Working Papers 127684, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    30. Timothy J Hatton & Jeffrey G Williamson, 2002. "Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 556-573, August.
    31. Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara, 2003. "Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2028, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    32. Sandler,Todd, 2004. "Global Collective Action," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521834773.
    33. Galor, Oded, 1986. "Time preference and international labor migration," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, February.
    34. Hendrik van Dalen & Kene Henkens, 2005. "The Rationality Behind Immigration Policy Preferences," De Economist, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 67-83, December.
    35. Sandler,Todd, 2004. "Global Collective Action," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521542548.
    36. Hatton, Timothy J & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2002. "Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 556-573, August.
    37. Michel Beine & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport, 2002. "Brain Drain and LDCs' Growth: Winners and Losers," Working Papers 2002-08, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    38. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
    39. Zimmermann, Klaus F. (ed.), 2005. "European Migration: What Do We Know?," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199257355, Decembrie.
    40. Angus Maddison, 2005. "Measuring And Interpreting World Economic Performance 1500–2001," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(1), pages 1-35, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2006. "Poverty Traps, Distance, and Diversity: The Migration Connection," NBER Working Papers 12549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2010. "The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth, worker remittances, accumulation and migration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1230-1245, September.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Johann Harnoss & Hillel Rapoport, 2016. "Birthplace diversity and economic prosperity," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 101-138, June.
    4. Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2003. "The Era of Free Migration: Lessons for Today," Trinity Economics Papers 200315, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    5. Alessandra Cepparulo & Luisa Giuriato, 2012. "Global Challenges and Country-Specific Responses through Aid Financing of Global Public Goods," Working Papers in Public Economics 156, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    6. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth: Reconciling the Micro and Macro Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 11940, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    8. van Dalen, H.P. & Micevska Scharf, M., 2011. "Reproductive Health Aid : A Delicate Balancing Act," Discussion Paper 2011-027, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2012. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 103-118.
    10. Kogel, Tomas, 2005. "Youth dependency and total factor productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 147-173, February.
    11. van Dalen, H.P. & Henkens, K., 2008. "Emigration Intentions : Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior," Other publications TiSEM d78ea768-e1d5-4a80-baff-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Martin-Mayoral, Fernando & Proaño, Maria Belén, 2012. "Las remesas en América Latina, ¿amenaza u oportunidad? [Remittances in Latin America, a threat or an opportunity?]," MPRA Paper 43730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Milo Bianchi, 2013. "Immigration Policy and Self-Selecting Migrants," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, February.
    14. Maruta, Admasu Asfaw & Banerjee, Rajabrata & Cavoli, Tony, 2020. "Foreign aid, institutional quality and economic growth: Evidence from the developing world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 444-463.
    15. R. Grafton & Tom Kompas & P. Owen, 2007. "Bridging the barriers: knowledge connections, productivity and capital accumulation," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 219-231, December.
    16. Ignacio Amate-Fortes & Almudena Guarnido-Rueda & Agustin Molina-Morales, 2017. "Economic and Social Determinants of Human Development: A New Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 561-577, September.
    17. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2006. "When the Quality of a Nation triggers Emigration," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-026/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Kox, Henk L.M., 2011. "The future of the fence around the European labour market," MPRA Paper 31722, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Remittances and the brain drain," Development Working Papers 214, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    20. repec:dgr:unumer:2008063 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Chasapopoulos, Panagiotis, 2018. "The impact of international immigration and cultural diversity on economic performance, public attitudes and political outcomes in European regions," Other publications TiSEM d4a10f2a-c1a2-4edd-9887-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aging; convergence; migration; remittances; population growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20070051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.