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International Migration in the Long-Run: Positive Selection, Negative Selection and Policy

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Author Info
Timothy J. Hatton
Jeffrey G. Williamson

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Abstract

Most labor scarce overseas countries moved decisively to restrict their immigration during the first third of the 20th century. This autarchic retreat from unrestricted and even publicly-subsidized immigration in the first global century before World War I to the quotas and bans introduced afterwards was the result of a combination of factors: public hostility towards new immigrants of lower quality, public assessment of the impact of those immigrants on a deteriorating labor market, political participation of those impacted, and, as a triggering mechanism, the sudden shocks to the labor market delivered by the 1890s depression , the Great War, postwar adjustment and the great depression. The paper documents the secular drift from very positive to much more negative immigrant selection which took place in the first global century after 1820 and in the second global century after 1950, and seeks explanations for it. It then explores the political economy of immigrant restriction in the past and seeks historical lessons for the present.

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Paper provided by Harvard - Institute of Economic Research in its series Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers with number 2038.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fth:harver:2038

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Antecol, Heather & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Trejo, Stephen, 2001. "Immigration Policy and the Skills of Immigrants to Australia, Canada, and the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 363, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Anna Maria Mayda (Georgetown University), . "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Minns, Chris, 2000. "Income, Cohort Effects, and Occupational Mobility: A New Look at Immigration to the United States at the Turn of the 20th Century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 326-350, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne, 1994. "The Performance of Immigrants in the Canadian Labor Market," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(3), pages 369-405, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2002. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," NBER Working Papers 9242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Richard Sinnott, 2004. "The Determinants of Individual Attitudes Towards Immigration," Trinity Economics Papers 20042, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Kevin O'Rourke & Jeffrey Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, 03.
  8. Hatton, T J & Boyer, G R & Bailey, R E, 1994. "The Union Wage Effect in Late Nineteenth Century Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(244), pages 435-56, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Borjas, George J, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lutz Hendricks, 2002. "How Important Is Human Capital for Development? Evidence from Immigrant Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 198-219, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Graziella Bertocchi & Chiara Strozzi, 2006. "The Age of Mass Migration: Economic and Institutional Determinants," IZA Discussion Papers 2499, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hendrik P. van Dalen, 2007. "Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-051/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. G. Bellettini & C. Berti Ceroni, 2004. "A positive analysis of immigration policy," Working Papers 520, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Università di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bertocchi, Graziella & Strozzi, Chiara, 2007. "The Evolution of Citizenship: Economic and Institutional Determinants," CEPR Discussion Papers 6066, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Bianchi, Milo, 2006. "Immigration Policy and Self-Selecting Migrants," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 627, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 02 Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Gordon H. Hanson, 2006. "Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States," NBER Working Papers 12141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Taylor, J. Edward & Mora, Jorge, 2006. "Does migration reshape expenditures in rural households? Evidence from Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3842, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Cristina Cattaneo, 2008. "International Migration, the Brain Drain and Poverty:A Cross Country Analysis," CESPRI Working Papers 212, CESPRI, Centre for Research on Innovation and Internationalisation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  9. Giorgio Bellettini & Carlotta Berti Ceroni, 2005. "When the Union Hurts the Workers: A Positive Analysis of Immigration Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2006. "When the Quality of a Nation triggers Emigration," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-026/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  11. Graziella Bertocchi & Chiara Strozzi, 2005. "Citizenship Laws and International Migration in Historical Perspective," Working Papers 2005.71, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Paolo E Giordani & Michele Ruta, 2008. "Prejudice and Immigration," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000002276, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Nicolas Peridy, 2007. "Welfare Magnets, Border Effects or Policy Regulations: What Determinants Drive Migration Flows into the EU?," Global Economy Journal, International Trade and Finance Association, vol. 6(4), pages 3. [Downloadable!]
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