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Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future

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  • Timothy J Hatton
  • Jeffrey G Williamson

Abstract

The paper uses analysis of the mass emigration from poor Europe in the late nineteenth century to project the future mass emigration potential from Africa, especially to the economically more mature Mediterranean economies. The economic and demographic fundamentals driving both experiences are likely to be the same, but their magnitudes are likely to be far bigger in the African case over the next few decades. Efforts to restrict the migration and to seal porous borders may be partially successful; but, if so, they are certain to create unpleasant side–effects. European restrictions will create a greater share of illegals and thus greater absorption problems in recipient nations: European restrictions will create more poverty in African sending regions. And European restrictions will create considerable diplomatic problems between the two regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J Hatton & Jeffrey G Williamson, 2002. "Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 556-573, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:3:p:556-573
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9396.00350
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Palmer & Mariola Pytlikova, 2013. "Labor Market Laws and Intra-European Migration: The Role of the State in Shaping Destination Choices," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2013015, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    2. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2006. "Poverty Traps, Distance and Diversity: The Migration Connection," CEPR Discussion Papers 5891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2010. "The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth, worker remittances, accumulation and migration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1230-1245, September.
    4. Dibeh, Ghassan & Fakih, Ali & Marrouch, Walid, 2017. "Decision to Emigrate Amongst the Youth in Lebanon," IZA Discussion Papers 10493, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Claus, Edda & Claus, Iris, 2011. "Effects of Taxation on Migration: Some Evidence for the ASEAN and APEC Economies," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 22-50.
    6. Hendrik P. van Dalen, 2007. "Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 465-486, September.
    8. Constant, Amelie F. & Tien, Bienvenue N., 2009. "Brainy Africans to Fortress Europe: For Money or Colonial Vestiges?," IZA Discussion Papers 4615, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2012. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 103-118.
    10. repec:dgr:unumer:2008063 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Tadesse Soka Gignarta & ZhenZhong Guan & Dinkneh Gebre Borojo, 2020. "The Impacts of Economic Freedom and Institutional Quality on Migration from African Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(3), pages 242-266, September.
    12. Winkler,Stephen Joseph, 2021. "Human Trafficking: Definitions, Data, and Determinants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9623, The World Bank.
    13. Thomas Ziesemer, 2011. "Growth with endogenous migration hump and the multiple, dynamically interacting effects of aid in poor developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4865-4878.
    14. Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, 2014. "How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7134, The World Bank.
    15. Mulubrhan Amare & Hosaena Ghebru & George Mavrotas & Adebayo Ogunniyi, 2024. "The Role of Land Inheritance in Youth Migration and Employment Choices: Evidence from Rural Nigeria," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(1), pages 135-160, February.
    16. Naudé, Wim, 2009. "Geography, transport and Africa’s proximity gap," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-9.
    17. Wim Naudé, 2008. "Conflict, Disasters, and No Jobs: Reasons for International Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-85, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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