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Growth with endogenous migration hump and the multiple, dynamically interacting effects of aid in poor developing countries

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  • Thomas Ziesemer

Abstract

We show empirically that aid given to poor developing countries enhances growth and reduces emigration, once several dynamically interacting effects of aid are taken into account in a system of equations. We estimate equations for net immigration flows as a share of the labour force and Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPC) growth and also for all their regressors including remittances and official development aid. We use dynamic panel data methods for a sample of poor countries with GDPPC below $1200 (2000), for which aid is about 9.5% of GDP. The partial effects in these regressions are working against each other. Therefore, we integrate all equations into a dynamic system and run a simulation. One result is an endogenous migration hump with several peaks. In a counterfactual simulation, we double aid with the consequence that for more than a 100 years migration is reduced and the GDPPC is enhanced, because the positive effects of aid on investment and education dominate the negative direct effects of aid on growth and the unfavourable effects on savings, tax revenues and labour force growth.

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  • Thomas Ziesemer, 2011. "Growth with endogenous migration hump and the multiple, dynamically interacting effects of aid in poor developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4865-4878.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:30:p:4865-4878
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2010.498363
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Ziesemer, 2016. "The Impact of Development Aid on Education and Health: Survey and New Evidence for Low‐income Countries from Dynamic Models," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 1358-1380, November.
    2. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2009. "Remittances, lagged dependent variables and migration stocks as determinants of migration from developing countries," MERIT Working Papers 2009-007, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2012. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 103-118.
    4. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2011. "From Growth Regressions To Systems Of Equations," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 121-137.
    5. A. Nurul Hossain & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2013. "Remittances and investment nexus in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 60(4), pages 387-407, December.
    6. Marko Gregl Klavdij Logožar, 2017. "The Impact of Development Aid on the International Migrations in the African, Caribbean, and Pacific Group of States," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 20(1), pages 101-112, May.
    7. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2010. "Net-immigration of developing countries: The role of economic determinants, disasters, conflicts, and political instability," MERIT Working Papers 2010-009, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    8. Cazachevici, Alina & Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Remittances and economic growth: A meta-analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Attila Melegh, "undated". "Divering Historical development of migration in Southeastern Europe since 1950," Working Papers on Population, Family and Welfare 17, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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