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Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future

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  • Hatton, Timothy J
  • Williamson, Jeffrey G

Abstract

The paper uses analysis of the mass emigration from poor Europe in the late nineteenth century to project the future mass emigration potential from Africa, especially to the economically more mature Mediterranean economies. The economic and demographic fundamentals driving both experiences are likely to be the same, but their magnitudes are likely to be far bigger in the African case over the next few decades. Efforts to restrict the migration and to seal porous borders may be partially successful; but, if so, they are certain to create unpleasant side-effects. European restrictions will create a greater share of illegals and thus greater absorption problems in recipient nations: European restrictions will create more poverty in African sending regions. And European restrictions will create considerable diplomatic problems between the two regions. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 556-73

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:3:p:556-73

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Cited by:
  1. Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2006. "Poverty Traps, Distance and Diversity: The Migration Connection," CEPR Discussion Papers 5891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Edda Claus & Iris Claus & Michael Dörsam, 2010. "The effects of taxation on migration: Some evidence for the ASEAN and APEC economies," CAMA Working Papers 2010-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. John Palmer & Mariola Pytlikova, 2013. "Labor Market Laws and Intra-European Migration: The Role of the State in Shaping Destination Choices," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1311, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  4. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2010. "The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth, worker remittances, accumulation and migration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1230-1245, September.
  5. Constant, Amelie F. & Tien, Bienvenue N., 2009. "Brainy Africans to Fortress Europe: For Money or Colonial Vestiges?," IZA Discussion Papers 4615, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Thomas Ziesemer, 2011. "Growth with endogenous migration hump and the multiple, dynamically interacting effects of aid in poor developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4865-4878.
  7. Hendrik P. van Dalen, 2007. "Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2008. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries," MERIT Working Papers 063, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  9. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2010. "The Impact of the Credit Crisis on Poor Developing Countries and the Role of China in Pulling and Crowding Us Out," MERIT Working Papers 004, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  10. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2012. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 103-118.
  11. Hendrik Dalen & George Groenewold & Jeannette Schoorl, 2005. "Out of Africa: what drives the pressure to emigrate?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 741-778, November.
  12. Naude, Wim, 2008. "Conflict, Disasters, and No Jobs: Reasons for International Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Paper Series RP2008/85, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  13. Hendrik P. van Dalen, 2007. "Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.

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