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International Migration in the Long-Run: Positive Selection, Negative Selection and Policy

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Author Info
Timothy J. Hatton
Jeffrey G. Williamson

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Abstract

Most labor scarce overseas countries moved decisively to restrict their immigration during the first third of the 20th century. This autarchic retreat from unrestricted and even publicly-subsidized immigration in the first global century before World War I to the quotas and bans introduced afterwards was the result of a combination of factors: public hostility towards new immigrants of lower quality public assessment of the impact of those immigrants on a deteriorating labor market, political participation of those impacted, and, as a triggering mechanism, the sudden shocks to the labor market delivered by the 1890s depression, the Great War, postwar adjustment and the great depression. The paper documents the secular drift from very positive to much more negative immigrant selection which took place in the first global century after 1820 and in the second global century after 1950, and seeks explanations for it. It then explores the political economy of immigrant restriction in the past and seeks historical lessons for the present.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10529.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10529

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Antecol, Heather & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Trejo, Stephen, 2001. "Immigration Policy and the Skills of Immigrants to Australia, Canada, and the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 363, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Minns, Chris, 2000. "Income, Cohort Effects, and Occupational Mobility: A New Look at Immigration to the United States at the Turn of the 20th Century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 326-350, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ximena Clark & Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "Where Do U.S. Immigrants Come From, and Why?," NBER Working Papers 8998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hatton, Timothy J., 1997. "The Immigrant Assimilation Puzzle in Late Nineteenth-Centuty America," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(01), pages 34-62, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hatton, T J & Boyer, G R & Bailey, R E, 1994. "The Union Wage Effect in Late Nineteenth Century Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(244), pages 435-56, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Anna Maria Mayda (Georgetown University), . "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne, 1994. "The Performance of Immigrants in the Canadian Labor Market," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(3), pages 369-405, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1986. "The Impact of the Irish on British Labor Markets During the Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(03), pages 693-720, September. [Downloadable!]
  9. Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2002. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," NBER Working Papers 9242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. George J. Borjas, 1993. "Immigration Policy, National Origin, and Immigrant Skills: A Comparison of Canada and the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Small Differences That Matter: Labor Markets and Income Maintenance in Canada and the United States, pages 21-44 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Richard Sinnott, 2004. "The Determinants of Individual Attitudes Towards Immigration," Trinity Economics Papers 20042, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592.
  13. Borjas, George J, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Lutz Hendricks, 2002. "How Important Is Human Capital for Development? Evidence from Immigrant Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 198-219, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dalen, H.P. van & Henkens, K., 2008. "Emigration Intentions: Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior," Discussion Paper 2008-60, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. G. Bellettini & C. Berti Ceroni, 2004. "A positive analysis of immigration policy," Working Papers 520, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cristina Cattaneo, 2008. "International Migration, the Brain Drain and Poverty:A Cross Country Analysis," CESPRI Working Papers 212, CESPRI, Centre for Research on Innovation and Internationalisation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Graziella Bertocchi & Chiara Strozzi, 2006. "The Evolution of Citizenship: Economic and Institutional Determinants," IZA Discussion Papers 2510, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2006. "When the Quality of a Nation triggers Emigration," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-026/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hoekman, Bernard & Ozden, Caglar, 2009. "The Euro-mediterranean partnership : trade in services as an alternative to migration ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5049, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Paolo E Giordani & Michele Ruta, 2008. "Prejudice and Immigration," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000002276, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Graziella Bertocchi & Chiara Strozzi, 2006. "The Age of Mass Migration: Economic and Institutional Determinants," IZA Discussion Papers 2499, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Hendrik P. van Dalen, 2007. "Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-051/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bianchi, Milo, 2006. "Immigration Policy and Self-Selecting Migrants," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 627, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 02 Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Gordon H. Hanson, 2006. "Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States," NBER Working Papers 12141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Taylor, J. Edward & Mora, Jorge, 2006. "Does migration reshape expenditures in rural households? Evidence from Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3842, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Giorgio Bellettini & Carlotta Berti Ceroni, 2005. "When the Union Hurts the Workers: A Positive Analysis of Immigration Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  14. Graziella Bertocchi & Chiara Strozzi, 2005. "Citizenship Laws and International Migration in Historical Perspective," Working Papers 2005.71, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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