Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis
AbstractA macro econometric model of the Russian economy is developed, containing 13 estimated equations – covering major national account variables, government expenditures and revenues, interest rates, prices and the labour market. The model is tailored to analyze effects of changes in the oil price and economic policy variables. The model has good statistical properties and tracks history well over the estimation period, which runs from 1995Q1 to 2008Q1. Model simulations indicate that the Russian economy is vulnerable to large fluctuations in the oil price, but we also find evidence of significant economic growth capabilities in the absence of oil price growth.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 617.
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Russia; macro econometric model; oil price dependency; fiscal and monetary policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2010-05-15 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-ENE-2010-05-15 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2010-05-15 (Transition Economics)
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