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Is India Ready for Flexible Inflation-Targeting?

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  • Sen Gupta, Abhijit
  • Sengupta, Rajeswari

Abstract

In this paper we analyze whether the current macroeconomic environment in India is suitable for implementation of inflation targeting as a monetary policy strategy, in light of the recommendation of the Urjit Patel Committee Report. Our results indicate that historically the Reserve Bank of India has given more importance to inflation compared to output growth and exchange rate changes in its monetary policy conduct and that in recent times there has been an increased emphasis on monetary independence thereby comfortably placing the RBI on a path to move towards flexible inflation targeting. However we also find factors, which are traditionally outside the control of monetary policy do exert a strong impact on aggregate prices in India thereby making the choice of nominal anchor a tricky one. Furthermore, the success of monetary policy in containing inflation is found to be crucially contingent on an appropriate fiscal policy as well.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 56430.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 2014
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56430

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Keywords: Reserve Bank of India; Monetary Policy; Taylor Rule; Financial trilemma; Inflation; Nominal anchor; Fiscal deficit;

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Janak Raj & Khundrakpam J K & Dipika Das, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in India," Working Papers id:4504, eSocialSciences.
  3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  4. Sen Gupta, Abhijit & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Management of Capital Flows in India: 1990-2011," MPRA Paper 46217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
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