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Estimation of the Russia’s trade policy options with the help of the Computable General Equilibrium Model

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Author Info

  • Alexander Alekseev

    ()
    (New Economic School/CEFIR)

  • Natalia Tourdyeva

    ()
    (CEFIR, NES)

  • Ksenia Yudaeva

    (CSR, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, NES)

Abstract

The computable general equilibrium model was used in assessing different Russia’s trade policy options. The base experiment lying in the core of our investigation is simulation of the EU eastward enlargement. According to our calculations Russia does not loose in the resulting equilibrium. This is not a zero-sum process from a point of view of Russia’s social welfare. The other experiments are: simulation of Russia’s WTO accession and creation of the Common European Economic Space. Change in the tariffs associated with the possible WTO accession is so small relative to the existing level of tariffs, that it does not give a significant change in the Russian economic environment. Significant changes are associated with the creation of the CEES as a free trade area between Russia and the enlarged Europe. If an FTA agreement will cover all goods and services, this will give a negative effect on the Russian economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0042.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0042

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Related research

Keywords: CGE models; enlargement of the European Union; Russia’s WTO accession; Free Trade Area;

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References

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  1. Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1992. "Protection for Sale," Papers 21-92, Tel Aviv.
  2. Stephen Coate & Timothy Besley, 2000. "Elected versus Appointed Regulators: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Konstantin Sonin, 2003. "Why the Rich May Favor Poor Protection of Property Rights," Working Papers w0022, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  4. Edward L. Glaeser & Jose Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "The Injustice of Inequality," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1967, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "The Politics of Free-Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 667-90, September.
  6. Sonin, Konstantin, 2010. "Provincial protectionism," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 111-122, June.
  7. Cai, Hongbin & Treisman, Daniel, 2004. "State corroding federalism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 819-843, March.
  8. Hellman, Joel S. & Jones, Geraint & Kaufmann, daniel, 2000. ""Seize the state, seize the day": state capture, corruption, and influence in transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2444, The World Bank.
  9. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Politicians and Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(4), pages 995-1025, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pavel Kadochnikov, 2006. "An Analysis of Import Substitution in Russia after the 1998 Crisis," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 95, pages 148.
  2. Evgeny Yakovlev & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2005. "State Capture: From Yeltsin to Putin," Working Papers w0052, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  3. Oksana Harbuzyuk & Stefan Lutz, 2008. "Analyzing trade opening in Ukraine: effects of a customs union with the EU," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 221-238, September.
  4. Yaroslav Lissovolik & Bogdan Lissovolik, 2004. "Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status," IMF Working Papers 04/159, International Monetary Fund.

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