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Target zones in History and Theory : efficiency, credibility and policy autonomy

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  • John Komlos

    (Department of Economics)

  • Marc Flandreau

    (Centre for Finance and Development)

Abstract

A natural experiment with an exchange-rate band in Austria-Hungary in the early 20th century provides a rare opportunity to discuss critical aspects of the theory of target zones. Providing a new derivation of the target zone model as a set of nested hypotheses, the inference is drawn that policy credibility and market efficiency were paramount in the success of the Austro-Hungarian experience.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number n°5199.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/602

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Related research

Keywords: target zone; market efficiency; monetary policy; covered interest parity;

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References

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  1. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2004. "Three Decades of Money Demand Studies. Some Differences and Remarkable Similarities," Working Papers 88, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  2. Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. "Testing the basic target zone model on Swedish data 1982-1990," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1441-1469, August.
  3. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
  4. Lindberg, H. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Testing the Basic Target Zone Model on Swedish Data," Papers 488, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  7. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-38, April.
  8. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
  9. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Koppl, Roger & Yeager, Leland B., 1996. "Big Players and Herding in Asset Markets: The Case of the Russian Ruble," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 367-383, July.
  11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
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Cited by:
  1. Flandreau, Marc & Jobst, Clemens, 2005. "The Ties that Divide. A Network Analysis of the International Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 5129, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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