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Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive: Quel pays en profitera le plus ?

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Ducoudre

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Eric Heyer

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE))

Abstract

Pendant près de 2 ans, entre le milieu de l’année 2012 et 2014, l’euro s’est apprécié face aux principales monnaies du monde. Depuis le mois de mai 2014, cette tendance s’est inversée : en quelques mois la monnaie européenne s'est notamment dépréciée de près de 10 % par rapport au dollar. Il s'agit dans cette étude d’anticiper les effets macroéconomiques (impact sur le PIB, sur les prix et sur l’emploi notamment) à attendre de cette dépréciation de l'euro. La relance de la croissance à court terme en zone euro via une dépréciation du taux de change effectif de l'euro permettrait en effet de lutter contre la déflation et de limiter les politiques non coopératives de désinflation compétitive menées dans le sud de l’Europe. Pour ce faire, nous présentons les résultats de la ré-estimation du bloc du commerce extérieur français (prix et volume des exportations et des importations) figurant dans le modèle macroéconomique emod.fr de l’OFCE. L’estimation conjointe des équations des volumes et des prix d'exportations et d'importations s’avère nécessaire et permet d’obtenir un effet bouclé d’une variation du taux de change effectif sur les volumes d'importations et d’exportations. La prise en compte des comportements de marge des importateurs et des exportateurs tend ainsi à limiter l’effet d'une variation du taux de change effectif sur les volumes d'importations et d’exportations lorsque ceux-ci ont un faible pouvoir de marché. Nous réitérons cette démarche sur les données de pays partenaires et concurrents de la France : l’Allemagne, l’Italie, l’Espagne, le Royaume-Uni et les États-Unis. Les élasticités obtenues sont cohérentes avec la littérature sur le sujet. Nous comparons ensuite l’incidence d’une dépréciation de l’euro sur les différentes économies étudiées en distinguant le commerce intra-zone et le commerce extra-zone euro, et nous présentons une analyse plus fine sur l'économie française grâce à l’utilisation du modèle emod.fr. Il ressort des simulations qu'au sein de la zone euro, l’Espagne aurait le plus à gagner à la fois d’une dépréciation du taux de change de l’euro face aux autres monnaies, mais aussi d’une politique de désinflation compétitive.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Ducoudre & Eric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive: Quel pays en profitera le plus ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1h97uoi1ng8, Sciences Po.
    • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1h97uoi1ng8t5q1gqhfd257dam
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    References listed on IDEAS

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