IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spo/wpmain/infohdl2441-6403.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive

Author

Listed:
  • Marion Cochard

Abstract

Cet article a pour objet de faire le point sur l’évolution récente du commerce extérieur français et d’expliquer le décrochage des pertes de parts de marché françaises. Dans une première partie, nous décrivons l’ampleur de la dégradation du commerce extérieur français. Nous montrons qu’au sein de la zone euro, l’exception est en réalité plutôt allemande que française, et que la divergence des deux économies ne s’explique pas par leur spécialisation géographique ou sectorielle mais par une supériorité allemande en matière de compétitivité. Dans une deuxième partie, nous analysons différents indicateurs de compétitivité-prix et hors prix ex-ante afin d’éclairer ces divergences de performances, et nous montrons que les modélisations classiques ne parviennent plus à expliquer l’évolution des parts de marché françaises à partir de 2000. Enfin, dans une dernière partie, nous montrons que l’introduction de nouveaux indicateurs dans la modélisation des exportations permet d’en expliquer le décrochage du début des années 2000 : dans un contexte de concurrence accrue sur le marché mondial, les entreprises françaises ont souffert d’un déficit en innovation et de la résurgence de politiques non-coopératives au sein de la zone euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6403, Sciences Po.
    • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6403
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/6403/resources/2008-07-cochard-le-commerce-exterieur-francais-a-la-derive.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
    2. Nivat, D. & Villetelle, J-P., 2006. "Les mauvaises performances du commerce extérieur de la France sont-elles liées à un problème de demande ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 146, pages 21-31.
    3. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6404 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6188 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    7. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée. Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 67-100.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée. Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 67-100.
    2. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu, 2013. "La quête de la compétitivité ouvre la voie de la déflation," Post-Print hal-03470596, HAL.
    3. Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Le piège de la déflation : Perspectives 2014-2015," Post-Print hal-03460404, HAL.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1h8j7abjq89cloabnpm33r8i7k is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6404 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461842, HAL.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1h97uoi1ng8t5q1gqhfd257dam is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Balázs Égert & Rafaƚ Kierzenkowski, 2014. "Exports and Property Prices in France: Are They Connected?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 387-409, March.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n2p94ecij is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bruno Ducoudré & Eric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01093016, HAL.
    11. Département analyse et prévision & Éric Heyer & Marion Cochard & Bruno Ducoudré & Hervé Péléraux, 2014. "France : ajustements graduels. Perspectives 2014-2015 pour l'économie française," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 85-143.
    12. Rafal Kierzenkowski, 2009. "The Challenge of Restoring French Competitiveness," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 720, OECD Publishing.
    13. Lionel Nesta, 2010. "Commentaire : Désindustrialisation ou mutation industrielle ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 297-301.
    14. Bruno Ducoudré & Éric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive. Quel pays en profitera le plus ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 221-253.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c6c7hcjgm915q0m9u9i8r91sb is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive," Post-Print hal-03588599, HAL.
    2. Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03588599, HAL.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6403 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Antonis Adam & Margarita Katsimi & Thomas Moutos, 2012. "Inequality and the import demand function," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 675-701, October.
    5. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Bardaka, Ioanna C., 2010. "New trade theory, non-price competitiveness and export performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 217-228, January.
    6. Peter G. Warr & Frances Wollmer, 1996. "The Demand For Ldc Exports Of Primary Commodities: The Case Of The Philippines," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(1), pages 37-49, April.
    7. Helmut Herwartz & Henning Weber, 2005. "Exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth—a comparison of linear and non‐linear (forecasting) models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 1-26, January.
    8. Hubert Strauß, 2001. "Euroland's Trade with Third Countries: An Estimation Based on NIPA Data," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 434-449.
    9. Martin Gürtler, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of trade balance behavior in a small open economy: the J-curve phenomenon and the Czech economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 469-497, February.
    10. Philip Chimobi Omoke, 2012. "Aggregate Import Demand and Expenditure Components in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(1), pages 149-163, March.
    11. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Ahn, Choong Y. & Lee, Young S. & Yang, Doo Y., 2007. "Consistent estimates of world trade elasticities and an application to the effects of Chinese Yuan (RMB) appreciation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 314-330, April.
    12. D. Baiardi & C. Bianchi, 2018. "At the roots of China's striking performance in textile exports: a comparison with its main Asian competitors," Economics Department Working Papers 2018-EP03, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    13. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "Drivers of Export Demand: A Focus on the GIIPS Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1454-1482, October.
    14. Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2006. "An aggregate import demand function for Turkey: a cointegration analysis," MPRA Paper 4260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6404 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. David Norman, 2006. "Modelling Manufactured Exports: Evidence from Australian States," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Jovanovic, Branimir, 2009. "Should the Macedonian denar be devalued? Some evidence from the trade equations," SEER Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 12(3), pages 339-368.
    18. Philip Chimobi Omoke, 2012. "Bank Credit and Aggregate Import Demand in Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(3), pages 28-37, June.
    19. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Bo-Yu & Tsai, Pei-Hui & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the impacts of a carbon tax on imported forest products—evidence from Taiwan," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 45-52.
    20. Balázs Égert & Rafaƚ Kierzenkowski, 2014. "Exports and Property Prices in France: Are They Connected?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 387-409, March.
    21. Algieri, Bernardina, 2015. "An Analysis of Regional Export Patterns: The Case of Calabria in Southern Italy - Un’analisi dei modelli di esportazione regionale: il caso della Calabria," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(3), pages 297-322.
    22. Makram El‐Shagi & William C. Sawyer & Kiril Tochkov, 2022. "The income elasticity of import demand: A meta‐survey," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 18-41, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commerce extérieur; Compétitivité; Modèle à correction d’erreurs (MCE);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Spire @ Sciences Po Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecspofr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.