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Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive ?

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  • Marion Cochard

Abstract

This paper deals with recent developments in foreign trade and notably with the fall of the French market shares. We first describe the deterioration of the French external trade since the beginning of the 2000?s. We show that within the euro zone, Germany is the exception rather than France, and that the difference between both countries cannot be explained by geographical or sector specialization. We analyse then different competitiveness indicators. We show that French companies succeed in containing prices by reducing margins, and that classic modelling using price-competitiveness does not manage to explain market share deterioration. Finally, we extend the standard model with nonprice competitiveness, supply indicators, and we introduce an indicator of world trade openness to take into account the emergence of new actors in world trade. JEL classification: F140, F170.

Suggested Citation

  • Marion Cochard, 2008. "Le commerce extérieur français à la dérive ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 29-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_106_0029
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nivat, D. & Villetelle, J-P., 2006. "Les mauvaises performances du commerce extérieur de la France sont-elles liées à un problème de demande ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 146, pages 21-31.
    2. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée. Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 67-100.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
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    6. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6188 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu, 2013. "La quête de la compétitivité ouvre la voie de la déflation," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6, Sciences Po.
    2. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée. Que faut-il retenir des données de panel ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 67-100.
    3. Lionel Nesta, 2010. "Commentaire : Désindustrialisation ou mutation industrielle ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 297-301.
    4. Bruno Ducoudré & Éric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive. Quel pays en profitera le plus ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 221-253.
    5. Bruno Ducoudré & Eric Heyer, 2014. "Baisse de l'euro et désinflation compétitive," Post-Print hal-01093016, HAL.
    6. Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Le piège de la déflation : Perspectives 2014-2015," Post-Print hal-03460404, HAL.
    7. Département analyse et prévision & Éric Heyer & Marion Cochard & Bruno Ducoudré & Hervé Péléraux, 2014. "France : ajustements graduels. Perspectives 2014-2015 pour l'économie française," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 85-143.
    8. Balázs Égert & Rafaƚ Kierzenkowski, 2014. "Exports and Property Prices in France: Are They Connected?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 387-409, March.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1h8j7abjq89cloabnpm33r8i7k is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6404 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard, 2008. "L'énigme des exportations revisitée," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461842, HAL.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1h97uoi1ng8t5q1gqhfd257dam is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n2p94ecij is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c6c7hcjgm915q0m9u9i8r91sb is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Rafal Kierzenkowski, 2009. "The Challenge of Restoring French Competitiveness," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 720, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    external trade; competitiveness; error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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