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Passing on Success? Productivity Outcomes for Quarterbacks Chosen in the 1999-2004 National Football League Player Entry Drafts

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin G. Quinn

    (St. Nobert College)

  • Melissa Geier

    (St. Nobert College)

  • Anne Berkovitz

    (St. Nobert College)

Abstract

Seventy quarterbacks were selected during six NFL drafts held 1999-2004. This paper analyzes information available prior to the draft (college, college passing statistics, NFL Combine data) and draft outcomes (overall number picked and signing bonus). Also analyzed for these players are measures of NFL playing opportunity (games played, games started, pass attempts) and measures of productivity (Pro Bowls made, passer rating, DVOA, and DPAR) for up to the first seven years of each drafted player’s NFL career. We find that more highly-drafted QBs get significantly more opportunity to play in the NFL. However, we find no evidence that more highly-drafted QBs become more productive passers than lower-drafted QBs that see substantial playing time. Furthermore, QBs with more pass attempts in their final year of more highly-ranked college programs exhibit lower NFL passing productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin G. Quinn & Melissa Geier & Anne Berkovitz, 2007. "Passing on Success? Productivity Outcomes for Quarterbacks Chosen in the 1999-2004 National Football League Player Entry Drafts," IASE Conference Papers 0711, International Association of Sports Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:spe:cpaper:0711
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web.holycross.edu/RePEc/spe/Quinn_NFLQBDraft.pdf
    File Function: Paper presented at the 9th annual IASE Conference in Dayton, Ohio, May 2007
    Download Restriction: no
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    2. Cade Massey & Richard Thaler, 2005. "Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League," NBER Working Papers 11270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Wallace Hendricks & Lawrence DeBrock & Roger Koenker, 2003. "Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 857-886, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfson Julian & Addona Vittorio & Schmicker Robert H, 2011. "The Quarterback Prediction Problem: Forecasting the Performance of College Quarterbacks Selected in the NFL Draft," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-22, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sports; NFL; Draft; Quarterback; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J42 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets

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