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A Strategy for EMU Enlargement

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  • Marek Dabrowski

Abstract

This paper summarizes the results of CASE's research project on 'Strategies for Joining the EMU' and proposes policy recommendations both for new member states (on how to manage their accession to the Eurozone) and for the European Commission, ECB and old member states (on how to manage and absorb EMU enlargement in an optimal way). Both the economic and the political economy arguments point to fast EMU accession of NMS. Looking at the 'classical' optimum currency area criteria, i.e. trade integration, co-movement of business cycles and actual factor mobility, NMS' record is not worse, on average, than that of the current Eurozone members, and should further improve before Eurozone entry, decreasing risk of their exposure to idiosyncratic shocks. After joining the EMU, the common currency should help NMS to develop additional intra-EMU trade links, further synchronize business cycle and increase factor mobility. Both theoretical arguments and empirical experience demonstrates that so-called real convergence accompanies nominal convergence, and that there is synergy rather than a trade-off between the two. The credibility of the Euro and price stability in the Eurozone will not be threatened by fast EMU Enlargement. Neither can the accession of fast growing NMS create an additional 'recessionary' impact on slow growing incumbent members. The biggest challenge for the common currency in the medium to long run may come from widespread breaches of EU fiscal rules. So the incumbents should replace their 'don't rush' advice by active encouragement of NMS to proceed with fast nominal convergence in order to meet the Maastricht criteria and join the EMU as quickly as possible.

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File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/4199675_Studies_and_Analyses_290.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Studies and Analyses with number 0290.

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Length: 60 Pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0290

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Keywords: currency unions; currency areas; monetary policy; fiscal policy; economic growth; monetary union; European Union; Economic and Monetary Union; Stability and Growth Pact; convergence; convergence criteria; new member states;

References

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  1. Michal Brzozowski, 2006. "Exchange Rate Variability and Foreign Direct Investment: Consequences of EMU Enlargement," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(1), pages 5-24, February.
  2. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  4. Piotr Bujak & Joanna Siwinska-Gorzelak, 2003. "Short-run Macroeconomic Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy Changes," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0261, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  5. Mateusz Szczurek, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Nominal Convergence," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0266, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  6. Andrew Berg & Paolo Mauro & Eduardo Borensztein, 2002. "An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 02/211, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Przemek Kowalski, 2003. "Nominal and Real Convergence in Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Transition Countries: Implications for the EMU Accession," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0270, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  8. Marek Jarocinski, 2004. "Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0287, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  9. Honohan, Patrick & Lane, Philip R., 2004. "Exchange Rates and Inflation Under EMU: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 4583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Daniel Gros, 2002. "The euro for the Balkans?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 491-511, July.
  11. Wojciech Paczynski, 2003. "ECB Decision-making and the Status of the Eurogroup in an Enlarged EMU," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0262, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  12. Ronald McKinnon, 2000. "Mundell, the Euro, and Optimum Currency Areas," Working Papers 00009, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  13. Patrick Lenain & Łukasz Rawdanowicz, 2004. "Enhancing Income Convergence in Central Europe after EU Accession," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 392, OECD Publishing.
  14. D. Mario Nuti, 2002. "Costs and benefits of unilateral euroization in central eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 419-444, July.
  15. Marek Dabrowski & Oleksandr Rohozynsky & Irina Sinitsina, 2004. "Post-Adaptation Growth Recovery in Poland and Russia - Similarities and Differences," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0280, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  16. David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613, October.
  17. Marek Dabrowski & Malgorzata Antczak & Michal Gorzelak, 2006. "Fiscal Challenges Facing the New Member States," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 252-276, June.
  18. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Ercolani, Valerio, 2002. "Cyclical and Structural Deficits on the Road to Accession: Fiscal Rules for an Enlarged European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 3672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. LSE Enterprise, 2011. "Study on the impact of the single market on cohesion: implications for cohesion policy, growth and competitiveness," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 42840, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Dobrinsky, Rumen, 2006. "Catch-up inflation and nominal convergence: The balancing act for new EU entrants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 424-442, December.
  3. Holger Wolf, 2012. "Eurozone entry criteria after the crisis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-6, March.

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