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Adopting the Euro: a synthetic control approach

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  • Gabriel, Ricardo Duque
  • Pessoa, Ana Sofia

Abstract

We investigate whether joining the European Monetary Union and losing the ability to set monetary policy affected the economic growth of 12 Eurozone countries. We use the synthetic control approach to create a counterfactual scenario for how each Eurozone country would have evolved without adopting the Euro. We let this matching algorithm determine which combination of other developed economies best resembles the pre-Euro path of twelve Eurozone economies. Our estimates suggest that there were some mild losers (France, Germany, Italy, and Portugal) and a clear winner (Ireland). Nevertheless, a GDP decomposition analysis suggests that the drivers of the economic gains and losses are heterogeneous.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Pessoa, Ana Sofia, 2020. "Adopting the Euro: a synthetic control approach," MPRA Paper 99391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Thomas COUDERT & Blandine ZIMMER, 2023. "Giving up the euro can be a good and a bad idea," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2023-01, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    3. Ferrari, Alessandro & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2023. "Risk sharing and the adoption of the Euro," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Esteban Colla‐De‐Robertis & Rafael Garduno Rivera, 2021. "The effect of a free trade agreement with the United States on member countries' per capita GDP: A synthetic control analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1129-1145, August.
    5. Lucke, Bernd, 2022. "Growth Effects of European Monetary Union: A Synthetic Control Approach," MPRA Paper 115373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Peter Dreuw, 2023. "Structural time series models and synthetic controls—assessing the impact of the euro adoption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 681-725, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary union; Eurozone; Macroeconomic performance; Synthetic control method; GDP decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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