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Monetary Policy Shifts, Indeterminacy and Inflation Dynamics

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Author Info
Paolo Surico () (Monetary Assessment & Strategy Division Bank of England)

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Abstract

The New-Keynesian Phillips curve plays a central role in modern macroeconomic theory. A vast empirical literature has estimated this structural relationship over various postwar full-samples. While it is well know that in a New-Keynesian model a `weak' central bank response to inflation generates sunspot fluctuations, the consequences of pooling observations from different monetary policy regimes for the estimates of the structural Phillips curve had not been investigated. Using Montecarlo simulations from a purely forward-looking model, this paper shows that indeterminacy can introduce a sizable persistence in the estimated process of inflation. This persistence however is not an intrinsic feature of the economy; rather it is endogenous to the policy regime and results from the self full-filling nature of inflation expectations. By neglecting indeterminacy the estimates of the forward-looking term of the structural Phillips curve are shown to be biased downward. The implications are in line with the empirical evidence for the U.K and U.S

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 313.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:313

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Related research
Keywords: indeterminacy; New-Keynesian Phillips curve; Montecarlo; bias; persistence;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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  6. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Luca Benati, 2005. "U.K. Monetary Regimes and Macroeconomic Stylised Facts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 107, Society for Computational Economics.
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  15. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," Staff Reports 88, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Monetary Policy Switch, the Taylor Curve, and the Great Moderation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 59, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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