Monetary Rules, Indeterminacy, and the Business-Cycle Stylised Facts
AbstractSeveral papers have documented how the reaction function of the U.S. monetary authority has been passive, and destabilising, before Volcker"s appointment, and active and stabilising since then. In this paper we first compare the two sub-periods in terms of several key business-cycle 'stylised facts'. The latter period appears to be characterised by a lower inflation persistence; a smaller volatility of reduced-form innovations to both inflation and real GDP growth; and a systematically smaller amplitude of business-cycle frequency fluctuations. Working with the Smets-Wouters (2003) sticky-price, sticky-wage DSGE model of the U.S. economy, we then investigate how such stylised facts change systematically with changes in the parameters of a simple forward-looking monetary rule. We solve the model under indeterminacy via the procedure introduced by Lubik and Schorfheide (2003). The determinacy and indeteminacy regions appear to be characterised by markedly different sets of stylised facts. In several cases the relationship between the parameters of the monetary rule and key stylised facts under indeterminacy is a mirror image of what it is under determinacy: both inflation persistence and the volatility of its reduced-form innovations, for example, are increasing in the coefficient on inflation under indeterminacy, decreasing under determinacy. We finally compare the facts identified in the data with those generated by the model conditional on estimated monetary rules.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 83.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
monetary policy rules; indeterminacy; business cycles; frequency domain; median-unbiased estimation.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-08-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2004-08-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MON-2004-08-16 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Lombardi, Marco J. & Sgherri, Silvia, 2007.
"(Un)naturally low? Sequential Monte Carlo tracking of the US natural interest rate,"
Working Paper Series
0794, European Central Bank.
- Marco Lombardi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "(Un)naturally Low? Sequential Monte Carlo Tracking of the US Natural Interest Rate," DNB Working Papers 142, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008.
"Money growth, output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency: Spectral estimates for Switzerland,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-435, February.
- Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," CEPR Discussion Papers 5723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," Working Papers 2006-05, Swiss National Bank.
- Zheng, Tingguo & Guo, Huiming, 2013. "Estimating a small open economy DSGE model with indeterminacy: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 642-652.
- Paolo Surico, 2005.
"Monetary Policy Shifts, Indeterminacy and Inflation Dynamics,"
- Paolo Surico, 2005. "Monetary Policy Shifts, Indeterminacy and Inflation Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 313, Society for Computational Economics.
- repec:wyi:journl:002201 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.