Business Cycle Co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC Countries
AbstractThis paper investigates the co-movement of business cycles between South Africa and the other BRICS countries namely, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the so-called BRICs. In particular, it identi.es the nature and key features of the co-movement of cycles of South African economy with cycles of the BRICs. It uses the dynamic factor model to a set of 307 macroeconomic series during the period 1995Q2-2009Q4. We .nd signi.cant evidence of synchronization between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the business cycle, although the magnitude of co-movement diÂ¤ers with each country. India portrays strong ties with South Africa over time. Moreover, Brazil, China, and Russia lead South Africa in the long-run, while India is contemporaneous. Further, the .ndings imply that the .rst two factors are BRICS factors while the third one is a US factor.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 324.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
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Dynamic Factor Model; International Business Cycles; Co-movement; BRICS;
Other versions of this item:
- M. Y. Çakır & A. Kabundi, 2013. "Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(33), pages 4698-4718, November.
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2013-01-26 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2013-01-26 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-OPM-2013-01-26 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
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