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Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations

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  • Vivian Yue

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Sangeeta Pratap

    (Hunter College and CUNY Graduate Center)

  • George Alessandria

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Abstract

This paper studies export dynamics in emerging markets following large devaluations. We document two main features of exports that are puzzling for standard trade models. First, given the change in relative prices, exports tend to grow gradually following a devaluation. Second, high interest rates tend to suppress exports. To address these features of export dynamics, we embed a model of endogenous export participation due to sunk and per period export costs into an otherwise standard small open economy. In response to shocks to productivity, interest rates, and the terms of trade, we find the model can capture the salient features of export dynamics documented. At the aggregate level, these features of export dynamics affect the net export and debt dynamics and thus have an impact on intertemporal borrowing and lending.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 983.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:983

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  1. Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman, 2014. "Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 793-831, March.
  2. Mark Wright & Guido Sandleris, 2011. "The Costs of Financial Crises: Resource Misallocation, Productivity and Welfare in the 2001 Argentine Crisis," 2011 Meeting Papers 900, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Engel, Charles & Wang, Jian, 2011. "International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-52, January.
  4. Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," CQER Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2012. "Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?," Working Papers 12-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2011. "Establishment heterogeneity, exporter dynamics, and the effects of trade liberalization," Working Papers 11-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2001. "Market entry costs, producer heterogeneity and export dynamics," Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers 03-10, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.
  9. Kalina Manova, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 711-744.
  10. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 804-819, October.
  11. Lukasz A. Drozd & Jaromir B. Nosal, 2012. "Understanding International Prices: Customers as Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 364-95, February.
  12. Jonathan Eaton, Marcela Eslava, Maurice Kugler, and James Tybout, 2007. "Export Dynamics in Colombia: Firm-Level Evidence," Working Papers eg0038, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2007.
  13. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2007. "Do Sunk Costs of Exporting Matter for Net Export Dynamics?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(1), pages 289-336, 02.
  14. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  15. Lukasz A. Drozd & Jaromir B. Nosal, 2008. "Understanding international prices: customers as capital," Staff Report 411, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Meza Felipe & Quintin Erwan, 2007. "Factor Utilization and the Real Impact of Financial Crises," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, September.
  17. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
  18. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  19. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-66, December.
  20. Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November.
  21. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
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  1. Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2013-06-09 00:48:43
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Cited by:
  1. Zhen Huo & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2013. "Paradox of thrift recessions," Staff Report 490, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Cooke, Dudley, 2014. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates, and the extensive margin of exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 128-145.
  3. Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Zhen Huo, 2013. "Realistic neoclassical multiplier," Economic Policy Paper 13-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Felipe Schwartzman, 2010. "Time to produce and emerging market crises," Working Paper 10-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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