Migration from Turkey and the Uncertainty of the Accession of Turkey to the EU
AbstractThere is a fear that, if Turkey were given admission to the EU, massive migration to the other member countries of the EU would result. This paper develops a theoretical framework for the migration decision that takes into consideration the impact on uncertainty of some of the important economic and social variables that are addressed by the EU membership and institutions. It emphasizes future expectations of living conditions and the level of uncertainty associated with them as a key variable in making migration decisions. It suggests that the more prosperous and stable Turkey is expected to be in the future, the less likely a person will now want to migrate. Hence, the greater certainty now that Turkey will gain admission in to EU, the more attractive is it for potential migrants to remain in Turkey. This framework suggests that measures to hinder Turkey's entry into the EU by having national referendums to approve its entry will increase the uncertainty of the future economic and social prospects in Turkey and will encourage migrants to migrate now to the member countries of the EU.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1182.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Turkey; Migration; Uncertainty; Accession; European Union;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-10-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2008-10-28 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-EEC-2008-10-28 (European Economics)
- NEP-MIG-2008-10-28 (Economics of Human Migration)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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