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Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries

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Author Info

  • D’Artis Kancs

    ()
    (London School of Economics, London, UK)

Abstract

In this paper I develop an analytically solvable and structur-ally estimable economic geography model and apply it to predict migration flows for the period following the CEE's integration with the EU. The main innovation of my ap-proach is that it endogenises both, explanatory variables and the migration rate. Model's parameters are estimated econometrically using a structural equation, which is de-rived entirely from the theoretical NEG model. My empirical findings advocate that there is enough evidence to predict a selective migration among the three Baltic States. However, labour mobility in the Baltic countries is sufficiently low to make the swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern very unlikely at this geographical level.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Transnational Press London, UK in its journal Migration Letters.

Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 32-63

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Handle: RePEc:mig:journl:v:2:y:2005:i:1:p:32-63

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Related research

Keywords: Migration ; Economic Geography ; European regions ; Agglomeration;

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References

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  1. Matthieu Crozet, 2004. "Do migrants follow market potentials? An estimation of a new economic geography model," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 439-458, August.
  2. Paul Krugman, 1990. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," NBER Working Papers 3275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Phillip B. Levine & David J. Zimmerman, 1999. "An empirical analysis of the welfare magnet debate using the NLSY," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 391-409.
  4. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Occupational Mobility of Ethnic Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 58, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," Working Paper Series, Research Institute of Industrial Economics 430, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  6. d’Artis Kancs & Julda Kielyte, 2002. "Migration in the Enlarged European Union: Empirical Evidence for Labour Mobility in the Baltic States," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2002_04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  7. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M, 2001. "First- and Second-Generation Migrants in Germany - What Do We Know and What Do People Think," CEPR Discussion Papers 2803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Head, Charles Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2003. "The Empirics of Agglomeration and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3985, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. De New, John P & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1994. "Native Wage Impacts of Foreign Labor: A Random Effects Panel Analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 177-92.
  10. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
  11. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-42, March.
  12. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10191 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Zaka Ratsimalahelo, 2001. "Rank Test Based On Matrix Perturbation Theory," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2001_04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  14. repec:fth:iniesr:430 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chen, Xi & Zhou, Bin & Zhong, Funing, 2010. "Do Consumers Really Care about Genetically Modified (GM) Food Label? What Do We Know? What Else Should We Know?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 53(2), pages 32-56.
  2. Rafael González-Val & Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2013. "Market potential and city growth: Spain 1860-1960," Working Papers 2013/13, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  3. d'Artis Kancs, 2011. "Labour migration in the enlarged EU: a new economic geography approach," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 171-188.
  4. Kancs, d'Artis & Kielyte, Julda, 2010. "European Integration and Labour Migration," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 14, November.
  5. Anderson, James, 2011. "Migration of Labor in Europe. Theory and Evidence," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 110427, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  6. d'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2007. "Blue Cards, Blue Prospects?," LICOS Discussion Papers, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven 19407, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  7. Kancs, D’Artis & Kielyte, Julda, 2010. "Education in the East, Emigrating to the West?," European Review, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 133-154, May.
  8. Ana Paula Martins, 2010. "Splitting Games: Nash Equilibrium and the Optimisation Problem," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_36, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  9. D'Artis Kancs & Pavel Ciaian, 2011. "Modelling the flow of knowledge and human capital: a framework of innovative capital," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2/3), pages 134-160.
  10. James Anderson, 2001. "Migration, FDI, and the Margins of Trade," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2001_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.

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