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Mobility in an Enlarging European Union: Projections of Potential Flows from EU's Eastern Neighbors and Croatia

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  • Fertig, Michael

    ()
    (ISG, Cologne)

  • Kahanec, Martin

    ()
    (Central European University)

Abstract

This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 7634.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7634

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Keywords: migration; free movement of workers; European Union; Eastern Partnership; EU enlargement; migration potential; out-of-sample forecasting;

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  1. Hatton, Timothy J., 2003. "Explaining Trends in UK Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4019, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. De Giorgi, Giacomo & Pellizzari, Michele, 2009. "Welfare migration in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 353-363, August.
  3. Giulietti, Corrado & Guzi, Martin & Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2011. "Unemployment Benefits and Immigration: Evidence from the EU," IZA Discussion Papers 6075, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Hatton, Timothy J, 1995. "A Model of U.K. Emigration, 1870-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 407-15, August.
  5. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2012. "Immigration: The European Experience," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012001, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  6. Martin Kahanec & Michael Shields, 2013. "The working hours of immigrants in Germany: temporary versus permanent," IZA Journal of Migration, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, December.
  7. repec:nsr:niesrd:379 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
  9. Martin Kahanec & Anna Myung-Hee Kim & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2013. "Pitfalls of immigrant inclusion into the European welfare state," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 39-55, January.
  10. Constant, Amelie F. & Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2008. "Attitudes towards Immigrants, Other Integration Barriers, and Their Veracity," IZA Discussion Papers 3650, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
  13. Hazans, Mihails & Philips, Kaia, 2011. "The Post-Enlargement Migration Experience in the Baltic Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 5878, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Paweł Kaczmarczyk & Marek Ok√≥lski, 2008. "Demographic and labour-market impacts of migration on Poland," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 600-625, Autumn.
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