Alan Ahearne (Bruegel, National University of Ireland in Galway, Trinity College Dublin) Herbert Brücker (Institute for Employment Research in Nürnberg, University of Bamberg) Zsolt Darvas () (Bruegel, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Corvinus University of Budapest) Jakob von Weizsäcker (Bruegel)
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This paper explores the influence of the economic cycle on labour mobility within the EU, focusing on the likely impact of the present economic crisis. To do so, we use an econometrically calibrated simulation and a case study of Ireland. We find that, in the short run, the crisis is likely to lead to a somewhat lower stock of migrants from the new member states in the EU15 than would have been the case without the crisis on account of diminished job opportunities for migrants. By contrast, in the longer run the crisis might lead to a moderate increase in migration from some of the new member states compared to what would have been the case without the crisis. The latter is driven by the observation that the crisis may have undermined the economic growth model of some of the new member states, thereby slowing down their economic catching-up process.
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Paper provided by Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest in its series Working Papers with number
0902.
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