Cyclical dimensions of labour mobility after EU enlargement
AbstractThis paper explores the influence of the economic cycle on labour mobility within the EU, focusing on the likely impact of the present economic crisis. To do so, we use an econometrically calibrated simulation and a case study of Ireland. We find that, in the short run, the crisis is likely to lead to a somewhat lower stock of migrants from the new member states in the EU15 than would have been the case without the crisis on account of diminished job opportunities for migrants. By contrast, in the longer run the crisis might lead to a moderate increase in migration from some of the new member states compared to what would have been the case without the crisis. The latter is driven by the observation that the crisis may have undermined the economic growth model of some of the new member states, thereby slowing down their economic catching-up process.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest in its series Working Papers with number 0902.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 02 Mar 2009
Date of revision: 25 May 2009
labour mobility; economic cycle; crisis; European Union;
Other versions of this item:
- Alan Ahearne & Herbert Brcker & Zsolt Darvas & Jakob von Weizs„cker, 2009. "Cyclical Dimensions of Labour Mobility after EU Enlargement," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0910, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
- Alan Ahearne & Herbert BrÃ¼cker & Zsolt Darvas & Jakob von WeizsÃ¤cker, 2009. "Cyclical dimensions of labour mobility after EU Enlargement," Working Papers 305, Bruegel.
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- O24 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-06-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2009-06-03 (European Economics)
- NEP-MIG-2009-06-03 (Economics of Human Migration)
- NEP-TRA-2009-06-03 (Transition Economics)
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