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Cyclical dimensions of labour mobility after EU enlargement

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  • Alan Ahearne
  • Herbert Brücker

    (Institute for Employment Research in Nürnberg, University of Bamberg)

  • Zsolt Darvas
  • Jakob von Weizsäcker

Abstract

This paper explores the influence of the economic cycle on labour mobility within the EU, focusing on the likely impact of the present economic crisis. To do so, we use an econometrically calibrated simulation and a case study of Ireland. We find that, in the short run, the crisis is likely to lead to a somewhat lower stock of migrants from the new member states in the EU15 than would have been the case without the crisis on account of diminished job opportunities for migrants. By contrast, in the longer run the crisis might lead to a moderate increase in migration from some of the new member states compared to what would have been the case without the crisis. The latter is driven by the observation that the crisis may have undermined the economic growth model of some of the new member states, thereby slowing down their economic catching-up process.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest in its series Working Papers with number 0902.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 02 Mar 2009
Date of revision: 25 May 2009
Handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:0902

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Keywords: labour mobility; economic cycle; crisis; European Union;

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  1. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," Working Papers 0801, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  2. Barrett, Alan & Duffy, David, 2007. "Are Ireland’s Immigrants Integrating into its Labour Market?," IZA Discussion Papers 2838, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Damm, Anna Piil & Rosholm, Michael, 2003. "Employment Effects of Dispersal Policies on Refugee Immigrants, Part I: Theory," IZA Discussion Papers 924, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Ray Barrell & John Fitzgerald & Rebecca Riley, 2010. "EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 373-395, 03.
  5. Alan Ahearne & Juan Delgado & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2008. "A tail of two countries," Policy Briefs 6, Bruegel.
  6. Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Hatton, Timothy J., 1993. "A Model of UK Emigration, 1870-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 771, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  9. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, December.
  10. Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?," IZA Discussion Papers 1710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-39, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  12. repec:nsr:niesrd:292 is not listed on IDEAS
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