IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/77200.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Volatility and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected African Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Onyimadu, Chukwuemeka

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic volatility and long run economic growth in a panel of 40 African countries over the period 1980 – 2014. The paper re – examines the postulates of both Ramey and Ramey (1995) – where investment was the primary link between volatility and growth - and Aghion et al (2005) – where financial credit constraints was the primary link - , that there is a negative and significant correlation between macroeconomic volatility and long run economic growth. The findings in the paper refutes this negative relationship between volatility and economic growth, with the conclusion that there exist a significant and positive correlation between volatility and economic growth with reference to the sample data set used. The findings of this paper are robust to controls for investment, different and appropriate measures of financial development, level of openness, government size and each countries initial level of real per capita GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Onyimadu, Chukwuemeka, 2016. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 77200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77200
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77200/1/MPRA_paper_77200.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries," Post-Print hal-00594797, HAL.
    2. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    3. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 828-854.
    4. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the US Current Account," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 457-496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, December.
    6. Solow, Robert M, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics We Should All Believe In?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 230-232, May.
    7. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    8. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    9. Aghion, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2005. "Volatility and Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248612.
    10. Norman V. Loayza & Claudio Raddatz, 2007. "The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 359-387, October.
    11. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2008. "Systemic Crises and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 359-406.
    12. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti, 1999. "Technology (and Policy) Shocks in Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 7063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 804-826, June.
    14. Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint‐Paul, 1998. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 279-303, July.
    15. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 246-265, April.
    16. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    18. Alberto Chong & Mark Gradstein, 2009. "Volatility and firm growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, March.
    19. Jetter, Michael, 2014. "Volatility and growth: Governments are key," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 71-88.
    20. Shu-Chin Lin & Dong-Hyeon Kim, 2014. "The link between economic growth and growth volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 43-63, February.
    21. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Post-Print halshs-00512159, HAL.
    22. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
    23. Dawson, John W. & Stephenson, E. Frank, 1997. "The link between volatility and growth: Evidence from the States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 365-369, September.
    24. -, 2009. "Economic growth in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38668, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    25. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Post-Print hal-00488679, HAL.
    26. Alessio Moro, 2015. "Structural Change, Growth, and Volatility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 259-294, July.
    27. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    28. Enisse Kharroubi, 2007. "Crises, Volatility, and Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 439-460, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    2. Dimitrios Bakas & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2019. "Volatility and growth: a not so straightforward relationship," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 874-907.
    3. Jetter, Michael, 2014. "Volatility and growth: Governments are key," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 71-88.
    4. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    5. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Mesurer l’instabilité macroéconomique - Applications aux données de recettes d’exportation, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    6. Norman Loayza & Amine Ouazad & Romain Ranciere, 2017. "Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?," Working Papers 114, Peruvian Economic Association.
    7. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on economic growth volatility," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 448-467.
    8. Michael Jetter, 2013. "Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10944, Universidad EAFIT.
    9. Michaël Assous & Muriel Dal Pont Legrand & Harald Hagemann, 2016. "Business cycles and growth," Chapters, in: Gilbert Faccarello & Heinz D. Kurz (ed.), Handbook on the History of Economic Analysis Volume III, chapter 4, pages 27-39, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni, 2014. "Productivity growth and volatility: how important are wage and price rigidities?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 306-324, January.
    11. Joël CARIOLLE, 2014. "Corruption in Turbulent Times: a Response to Shocks?," Working Papers P106, FERDI.
    12. Joël CARIOLLE, 2016. "The voracity and scarcity effects of export booms and busts on bribery," Working Papers P146, FERDI.
    13. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
    14. Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon, 2015. "Measuring Macroeconomic Instability: A Critical Survey Illustrated With Exports Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26, February.
    15. Lin, Pei-Chien & Huang, Ho-Chuan (River), 2012. "Banking industry volatility and growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1007-1019.
    16. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of structural economic vulnerability on the participation in international trade," EconStor Preprints 262004, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. Luis Hernando Portillo-Riascos & Edinson Ortiz-Benavides, 2021. "The External Vulnerability of the Colombian Economy 1990-2015: A Comparative Analysis," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 94, pages 11-46, Enero-Jun.
    18. Joël CARIOLLE, 2014. "Corruption in Turbulent Times: a Response to Shocks?," Working Papers P106, FERDI.
    19. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Export product diversification and tax performance quality in developing countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 849-876, October.
    20. Christoph Priesmeier & Nikolai Stähler, 2011. "Long Dark Shadows Or Innovative Spirits? The Effects Of (Smoothing) Business Cycles On Economic Growth: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 898-912, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic Volatility; Economic Growth; Financial Development; Investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.