Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005

Contents:

Author Info

  • Joël CARIOLLE

    (FERDI)

Abstract

La littérature sur l’instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l’instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le prétexte que les différentes méthodes, basées sur la stationnarisation des séries, résultent en des scores d’instabilité fortement corrélés entre eux. Pourtant, si effectivement ces méthodes convergent lorsque seule l’ampleur moyenne d’une distribution autour d’une valeur de référence est analysée, elles divergent significativement quand on s’intéresse à son asymétrie ou à sa voussure (occurrence des déviations extrêmes). Dans cet article, nous proposons une revue de la littérature sur le sujet et présentons les principales méthodes de calcul de l’instabilité. A partir de données sur les recettes d’exportation de 134 pays de 1970 à 2005, nous comparons ces méthodes et analysons leurs propriétés. Nous distinguons notamment les mesures d’ampleur de l’instabilité, des mesures d’asymétrie, et d’occurrence des déviations extrêmes.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ferdi.fr/sites/www.ferdi.fr/files/publication/fichiers/Indicateur14_Cariolle_web.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FERDI in its series Working Papers with number I14.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fdi:wpaper:639

Contact details of provider:
Phone: +33473177542
Web page: http://ferdi.fr/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May.
  2. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  3. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
  4. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  5. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Working Papers id:2625, eSocialSciences.
  6. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287, 02.
  7. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  9. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2005. "Democracy, Volatility, and Economic Development," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 348-361, May.
  11. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
  12. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "The Risk Content of Exports: A Portfolio View of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 16005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Imbs, Jean, 2007. "Growth and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1848-1862, October.
  14. Konya, Laszlo, 2004. "Unit-Root, Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Results for Export and Growth in OECD Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 67-94.
  15. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 221-50, May.
  16. Gelb, A H, 1979. "On the Definition and Measurement of Instability and the Costs of Buffering Export Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 149-62, January.
  17. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. P. Guillaumont & J.-L Combes & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & P. Motel Combes, 2000. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, Programme National Persée, vol. 15(1), pages 3-33.
  19. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 343-357, October.
  20. Christophe Hurlin & Valérie Mignon, 2006. "Une Synthèse des Tests de Racine Unitaire sur Données de Panel," Post-Print halshs-00078770, HAL.
  21. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  23. Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2001. "Time Aggregation and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0108, Banco de Espa�a.
  24. Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2001. "Time Aggregation and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0108, Banco de Espa�a.
  25. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
  26. Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont & Brun, Jean-Francois, 1999. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(1), pages 87-107, March.
  27. Teame Ghirmay & Subhash Sharma & Richard Grabowski, 1999. "Export instability, income terms of trade instability and growth: causal analyses," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 209-229.
  28. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  29. Norman V. Loayza & Claudio Raddatz, 2007. "The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 21(3), pages 359-387, October.
  30. Alain GUAY & Pierre SAINT-AMANT, 2005. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 77, pages 133-155.
  31. Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning & Bill Kinsey, 2003. "Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-068/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 19 Sep 2006.
  32. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2426, The World Bank.
  33. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  34. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2013. "Policy Volatility, Institutions, and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 362-376, May.
  35. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  36. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  37. Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment: Flows, Volatility, and the Impact on Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 478-493, 08.
  38. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity Price Uncertainty in Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  39. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
  40. Paolo Mauro & Törbjörn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund.
  41. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fdi:wpaper:639. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vincent Mazenod).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.