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Fertility decline, baby boom and economic growth

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  • Murphy, Kevin M
  • Simon, Curtis
  • Tamura, Robert

Abstract

We present new data documenting the secular decline in fertility in the states of the United States, the dramatic convergence in fertility, child schooling, parental schooling, survival probabilities. In addition we document the disparate nature of the Baby Boom in the United States. There were two different regimes, a large Baby Boom and a Small Baby Boom. The large Baby Boom regions also had the smallest increase in child schooling, whereas the small Baby Boom regions had the largest increase in child schooling. We present suggestive evidence that falling mortality risk is strongly positively correlated with falling fertility, rising education levels of parents is strongly negatively related to fetility, and that population density is negatively related to fertility. Finally we show the robust negative correlation of mortality risk on child schooling attainment, and positve correlation of population density and child schooling attainment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7719.

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Date of creation: 03 Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7719

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Keywords: mortality; density; fertility decline; baby boom; economic growth;

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References

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  1. Oded Galor, 2006. "The Demographic Transition," Working Papers 2006-24, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  2. Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," NBER Working Papers 7375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fernández, Raquel, 2009. "Women's Rights and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 7464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Raquel Fernández, 2009. "Women's Rights and Development," NBER Working Papers 15355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis & Murphy, Kevin M., 2012. "Black and White Fertility, Differential Baby Booms: The Value of Civil Rights," MPRA Paper 40921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2013. "Life expectancy and human capital: Evidence from the international epidemiological transition," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1142-1152.
  5. Deng, Binbin, 2009. "人口结构转变过程中生育率与经济增长的关系
    [Fertility and Economic Growth in the Process of Demographic Transition]
    ," MPRA Paper 23207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Raquel Fernandez, 2010. "Women's Rights and Development," Working Papers 2011-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  7. Canaday, Neil & Tamura, Robert, 2009. "White discrimination in provision of black education: Plantations and towns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1490-1530, July.
  8. Raquel Fernández, 2014. "Women’s rights and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 37-80, March.
  9. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Bill Lord & Christelle Viauroux, 2012. "Revolution in U.S. Fertility, Schooling and Women's Work, 1875-1940: Assessing Proposed Explanations," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 12-04, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 30 Aug 2013.
  10. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2012. "The effect of life expectancy on schooling: Evidence from the international health transition," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 6/2012, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.
  11. Masako Kimura & Daishin Yasui, 2010. "The Galor–Weil gender-gap model revisited: from home to market," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 323-351, December.
  12. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Bill Lord & Christelle Viauroux, 2009. "Health and the Revolution in Household Behavior 1880-1940: Fertility, Education and Married Female Labor Supply (previously entitled: Schooling, Fertility, and Married Female Labor Supply: What Role f," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-108, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 15 Apr 2010.
  13. Casper Worm Hansen, 2012. "Causes of mortality and development: Evidence from large health shocks in 20th century America," Economics Working Papers 2012-29, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  14. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Gerald P. & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2012. "Economic growth In the long run," MPRA Paper 41324, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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