Do higher rents discourage fertility? evidence from U.S. cities, 1940-2000
AbstractThis paper documents the existence of a negative cross-sectional correlation between the price of living space and fertility using U.S. Census data over the period 1940-2000. This correlation is not spurious, nor does it reflect the tendency of larger families to locate within less-expensive areas of a given metropolitan area. We examine the extent to which the results reflect the sorting of married couples across metropolitan areas on desired fertility. The relationship between the unit price of living space and fertility in fact tends to be more negative for households that have moved recently. However, the probability of migration between metropolitan areas is smaller for larger families, even those originating in more expensive cities. Moreover, Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests reveal only limited evidence of endogeneity. The weaker effects of the price of living space for less mobile couples seems to be at least in part a result of their choosing to live in less-expensive portions within a given metropolitan area.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7721.
Date of creation: 15 Feb 2008
Date of revision:
price of space; fertility; metropolitan areas;
Other versions of this item:
- Simon, Curtis J. & Tamura, Robert, 2009. "Do higher rents discourage fertility? Evidence from U.S. cities, 1940-2000," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 33-42, January.
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-03-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2008-03-15 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2008-03-15 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jan K. Brueckner & Ann G. Largey, 2006.
"Social Interaction and Urban Sprawl,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1843, CESifo Group Munich.
- Margo, Robert A., 1996. "The Rental Price of Housing in New York City, 1830–1860," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(03), pages 605-625, September.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, .
"Urban Decline and Durable Housing,"
Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers
382, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2001. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," NBER Working Papers 8598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2001. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1931, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Naz, Ghazala & Nilsen, Øivind Anti & Vagstad, Steinar, 2002. "Education and completed fertility in Norway," Working Papers in Economics 18/02, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
- Jonathan Guryan, 2004.
"Desegregation and Black Dropout Rates,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 919-943, September.
- Schultz, T. Paul, 1993. "Demand for children in low income countries," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 349-430 Elsevier.
- Haurin, Donald R & Hendershott, Patric H & Kim, Dongwook, 1993. "The Impact of Real Rents and Wages on Household Formation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 284-93, May.
- Glaeser, Edward L & Gyourko, Joseph & Saks, Raven, 2005. "Why Is Manhattan So Expensive? Regulation and the Rise in Housing Prices," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 331-69, October.
- Ermisch, John, 1999. "Prices, Parents, and Young People's Household Formation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 47-71, January.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, September.
- DiPasquale, Denise, 1999. "Why Don't We Know More about Housing Supply?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 9-23, January.
- Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
- Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-78, December.
- Borsch-Supan, Axel, 1986. "Household formation, housing prices, and public policy impacts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 145-164, July.
- Francisco Covas & J.M.C. Santos Silva, 2000. "A modified hurdle model for completed fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 173-188.
- Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
- Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis J., 2012.
"Secular fertility declines, baby booms and economic growth: international evidence,"
41669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Curtis Simon & Robert Tamura, 2010. "Secular Fertility Declines, Baby Booms and Economic Growth: International Evidence," 2010 Meeting Papers 1041, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Hiroshi Aiura & Yasuhiro Sato, 2009.
"A model of urban demography,"
Discussion Papers in Economics and Business
09-18-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), revised Nov 2009.
- Dan A. Black & Natalia Kolesnikova & Seth G. Sanders & Lowell J. Taylor, 2013.
"Are Children “Normal”?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 21-33, March.
- Dan Black & Natalia Kolesnikova & Seth G. Sanders & Lowell J. Taylor, 2009. "Are children 'normal'?," Working Papers 2008-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Black, Dan A. & Kolesnikova, Natalia & Sanders, Seth G. & Taylor, Lowell J., 2011. "Are Children "Normal"?," IZA Discussion Papers 5959, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- William A.V. Clark, 2012. "Do women delay family formation in expensive housing markets?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(1), pages 1-24, July.
- Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis & Murphy, Kevin M., 2012. "Black and White Fertility, Differential Baby Booms: The Value of Civil Rights," MPRA Paper 40921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.