Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The laffer curve and the debt-growth link in low-income Sub-Saharan African economies

Contents:

Author Info

  • Megersa, kelbesa

Abstract

The study of the link between debt and growth has been full of debates, both in theory and empirics. However, there is a growing consensus that the relationship is sensitive to the level of debt. Our paper tries to address the question of non linearity in the long term relationship between public debt and economic growth. Specifically, we set out to test if there exists an established ‘laffer curve’ type relationship, where debt contributes to economic growth up to a certain point (maximal threshold) and then starts to have a negative effect on growth afterwards. To carry out our tests, we have used a methodology that delivers a superior test of bell shapes, in addition to the traditional test based on a regression with a quadratic specification. The results show evidence of a bell-shaped relationship between economic growth and total public debt in a panel of low income Sub-Saharan African economies. This supports the hypothesis that debt has some positive contribution to economic growth in low-income countries, albeit up to a point. If debt goes on increasing beyond the level where it would be sustainable, it may start to be a drag on economic growth.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54362/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 54362.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 12 Mar 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54362

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: public debt; economic growth; laffer curve; low-income countries; Sub-Saharan Africa;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Novales, Alfonso & Ruiz, Jesus, 2002. "Dynamic Laffer curves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 181-206, December.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," NBER Working Papers 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ugo Panizza & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2012. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 65, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  4. Jeffrey Sachs & Harry Huizinga, 1987. "U.S. Commercial Banks and the Developing Country Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 2455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2010. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," Development Working Papers 300, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  6. Claessens, Stijn, 1990. "The debt laffer curve: Some estimates," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(12), pages 1671-1677, December.
  7. Claessens, Stijn & Diwan, Ishac, 1991. "The LDC debt crisis: Who gains from debt reductions?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 181-202, September.
  8. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2013. "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogo ff," Working Papers wp322, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  9. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  10. Andros Kourtellos & Thanasis Stengos & Chih Ming Tan, 2012. "The Effect of Public Debt on Growth in Multiple Regimes," Working Papers 1210, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  11. Lind , Jo Thori & Mehlum , Halvor, 2007. "With or Without U? The appropriate test for a U shaped relationship," Memorandum 21/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  12. Holger Strulik & Timo Trimborn, 2011. "Laffer Strikes Again: Dynamic Scoring of Capital Taxes," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_074, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  13. Francois Libois & Vincenzo Verardi, 2013. "Semiparametric fixed-effects estimator," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 13(2), pages 329-336, June.
  14. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
  15. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 45(3), pages 255-268, 09.
  16. John H. Cochrane, 2010. "Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," NBER Working Papers 16087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Cassimon, Danny & Vaessen, Jos, 2007. "Theory, practice and potential of debt for development swaps in the Asian and Pacific region," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 12-34, March.
  18. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2011. "The Impact Of Democracy And Corruption On The Debt-Growth Relationship In Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 41-72, December.
  19. Tito Cordella & Luca Antonio Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2010. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 1-24, April.
  20. Hausmann Ricardo & Panizza Ugo, 2011. "Redemption or Abstinence? Original Sin, Currency Mismatches and Counter Cyclical Policies in the New Millennium," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-35, August.
  21. De Grauwe, Paul, 2012. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," Walter Adolf Jöhr Lecture 2012, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Institute of Economics (FGN-HSG).
  22. Freytag, Andreas & Pehnelt, Gernot, 2009. "Debt Relief and Governance Quality in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 62-80, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54362. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.