Predictable or Not? Forecasting Office Markets with a Simultaneous Equation Approach
AbstractThe main objective of this paper is to elucidate the capability of time-series regression models to capture and forecast movements in occupancy patterns, rental rates and construction activity. The model presented is a three-stage simultaneous equation model. The first stage incorporates the office space market in terms of occupied space and absorption of new space. The second stage captures the adjustment of office rents to changing market conditions and the third stage specifies the supply response to market signals in terms of construction of new office space. The standard simultaneous model is subsequently modified to account for the specific characteristics using the New York market as a case study. The results demonstrate that the market reacts efficiently and predictably to changes in market conditions. The significance of the estimated parameters underscores the general validity and robustness of the simultaneous equation approach in modeling real estate markets. The modifications of the standard model, notably the inclusion of sublet space in the rent equation, contributed considerably to improving the explanatory power of the model. Finally, we test whether a non-linear function performs better than the original linear approach and find mixed evidence based on the limited empirical dataset of this study.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5262.
Date of creation: 20 Jun 2006
Date of revision:
forecasting; real estate; office markets; dynamic models; simultaneous equation approach; multivariate regression models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-10-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2007-10-13 (Forecasting)
- NEP-URE-2007-10-13 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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