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Un modèle à équations simultanées du cycle des bureaux en région parisienne

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  • Richard Malle

Abstract

[eng] This paper presents a simultaneous-equation model for the Paris Region office market in 1994-2008. We determine the market’s supply / demand relationship by combining net absorption, the vacancy rate, real rents, and the volume of office construction starts. We then simulate office-market cycles according to different employment hypotheses up to 2020. The results show that the Paris Region employment cycle determines the cycle of office-market fundamentals. Interest rates have a limited impact on the decisions of property-market players. [fre] Cet article présente un modèle à équations simultanées appliqué au marché des bureaux de la région parisienne sur la période 1994-2008. On détermine l’offre et la demande en espace de bureaux en reliant l’absorption nette, le taux de vacance, les loyers réels et les volumes de mises en chantier de bureaux. Différents scénarios du cycle sont ensuite simulés en fonction d’hypothèses type sur l’évolution de l’emploi jusqu’en 2020. Les résultats montrent que le cycle de l’emploi en région parisienne détermine celui des fondamentaux de l’immobilier de bureaux. Dans une moindre mesure, les taux d’intérêt influencent aussi le comportement des acteurs du marché.

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  • Richard Malle, 2010. "Un modèle à équations simultanées du cycle des bureaux en région parisienne," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 194(3), pages 93-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2010_num_194_3_8051
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2010.8051
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2010.8051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jerome Coffinet & Etienne Kintzler, 2019. "Is the Office Market Overvalued? A Simple Framework Applied to France," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 275-306.
    2. Jerome Coffinet & Etienne Kintzler, 2019. "Is the Office Market Overvalued? A Simple Framework Applied to France," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 22(2), pages 275-307.

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