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Les déterminants de la demande touristique: le cas du Maroc
[Determinants of tourism demand: the case of Morocco]

Author

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  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed
  • El Menyari, Younesse

Abstract

Given the strong contribution of tourism in the Moroccan economy, we propose in this paper to analyze the determinants of an empirical point of view of international tourism demand addressed to Morocco. To do this, we estimated a vector error correction (VECM) for the period 2000 - 2009 with a quarterly frequency. The results of our estimates show that long-term arrivals at border posts (specifically from France, Spain and Germany) depend positively on income, the accommodation capacity in classified establishments, the exchange rate and negatively on the relative price. Furthermore, our estimates indicate that external shock (especially a terrorist act) will have a significantly negative impact on tourism demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2012. "Les déterminants de la demande touristique: le cas du Maroc [Determinants of tourism demand: the case of Morocco]," MPRA Paper 39029, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Jittaporn Sriboonjit & Thanes Sriwichailamphan & Prasert Chaitip & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration Analysis: An Application To International Tourism Demand Of Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(3), pages 69-86.
    2. Salman, Khalik & Arnesson, Leif & Sörensson, Anna & Shukur, Ghazi, 2009. "Estimating the Swedish and Norwegian International Tourism Demand using ISUR Technique," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 198, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    3. Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
    4. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 132-132.
    5. Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2007. "Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(3), pages 407-420, September.
    6. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip & N. Rangaswamy, 2008. "A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Test of the Modeling International Tourism Demand in India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 95-124.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2013. "The relationship between international tourism and economic growth: the case of Morocco and Tunisia," MPRA Paper 44102, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism demand; stationarity; cointegration; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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