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A Panel Cointegration Analysis: Thailand’s International Tourism Demand Model

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Author Info

  • Prasert Chaitip

    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

  • Chukiat Chaiboonsri

    (Bangalore University, India)

Abstract

This paper sought to find the long-run relationships between international tourist arrivals in Thailand and economic variables such as GDP, cost of transportation and exchange rates for the period 1996 to 2007. Also this paper used five standard panel unit root tests such as LLC (2002) panel unit root test, Breitung (2000) panel unit root test, IPS (2003) panel unit root test, Maddala and Wu (1999), Choi (2001) panel unit root test, Handri (1999) panel unit root test. Moreover, the panel cointegration test based on Pedroni residual cointegration tests, Kao residual cointegration tests and Johansen fisher panel cointegration test were used to test in panel among the variables. The FMOLS estimator was used to find the long-run relationship of the international tourism demand model for Thailand. The long-run results indicated that growth in income (GDP) of Thai’s Asia major tourist source markets has a positive impact on international tourist arrivals to Thailand. The empirical data implies that when the GDP of Asia major international tourist source markets such as Malaysia, Japan, Korea, China, Singapore, Taiwan increases by 1% then the number of international tourist arrivals to Thailand increases by 1.46%. In addition, when Thailand’s currency strengthens by 1% in comparison to the currencies of the above countries, then the number of international tourist arrivals to Thailand from those countries increases by 0.74%.

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File URL: http://upet.ro/annals/economics/pdf/2009/20090113.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Petrosani, Romania in its journal Annals of the University of Petrosani - Economics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 129-142

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Handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:9:i:1:y:2009:p:129-142

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Web page: http://www.upet.ro/

Related research

Keywords: Thailand; tourism demand; Panel Unit Root Test; Panel Cointergration Test; long-run relationship;

References

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  2. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  3. Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  4. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  5. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  6. Miguel D. Ramirez, 2006. "A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Test of the Complementarity Hypothesis in the Mexican Case, 1960-2001," Working Papers 942, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  7. Roberto Basile & Sergio Destefanis & Mauro Costantini, 2005. "Unit root and cointegration tests for cross-sectionally correlated panels - Estimating regional production functions," ERSA conference papers ersa05p171, European Regional Science Association.
  8. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  9. Naudé, Wim & Saayman, Andrea, 2005. "Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis," MPRA Paper 16479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Breitung, Jörg, 2002. "A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,3, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  11. William Maloney & Gabriel V. Montes Rojas, 2005. "How elastic are sea, sand and sun? Dynamic panel estimates of the demand for tourism," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 277-280.
  12. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  13. repec:wop:humbsf:2002-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "Thailand’s International Tourism Demand: The ARDL Approach to Cointegration," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 163-184.
  15. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  17. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2008. "Empirical Analysis of the Money Demand Function in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(4), pages 1-15.
  18. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  19. Chihwa Kao & Suzanne McCoskey, 1997. "A Residual-Based Test Of The Null Of Cointegration In Panel Data," Econometrics 9711002, EconWPA.
  20. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
  21. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip & N. Rangaswamy, 2008. "A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Test of the Modeling International Tourism Demand in India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 95-124.
  22. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
  23. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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  1. repec:rom:campco:v:9:y:2013:i:1:p:220-234 is not listed on IDEAS

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