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A Panel Cointegration Analysis: An Application To International Tourism Demand Of Thailand

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Author Info

  • Chukiat Chaiboonsri

    ()
    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

  • Jittaporn Sriboonjit

    (Thammassat University, Thailand)

  • Thanes Sriwichailamphan

    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

  • Prasert Chaitip

    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

  • Songsak Sriboonchitta

    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

Abstract

This paper sought to find the long-run relationships between international tourist arrivals in Thailand and economic variables such as GDP, transportation cost and exchange rates during period of 1986 to 2007. Also this paper used five standard panel unit root tests such as LLC (2002) panel unit root test, Breitung (2000) panel unit root test, IPS (2003) panel unit root test, Maddala and Wu (1999) and Choi (2001) panel unit root test and Handri (1999) panel unit root test. Moreover, the panel cointegration test based on Pedroni residual cointegration tests, Kao residual cointegration tests and Johansen fisher panel cointegration test were used to test in panel among the variables. The OLS estimator, DOLS estimator and FMOLS estimator were used to find the long-run relationship of the international tourism demand model for Thailand. The long-run results indicated that growth in income (GDP) of Thai’s Asia major tourist source markets (Malaysia, Japan, Korea, China, Singapore and Taiwan) have a positive impact on international tourists arrival to Thailand. In addition, the transportation cost of these countries has negative impact on the number of international tourist arrivals to Thailand. Finally Thailand’s currency has positive impact on the number of international tourist arrivals to Thailand. Most of findings from this study were consistent with economic theory and the implications of the model can be use for policy making.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Petrosani, Romania in its journal Annals of the University of Petrosani - Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 69-86

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Handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:10:y:2010:i:3:p:69-86

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Web page: http://www.upet.ro/

Related research

Keywords: Thailand; tourism demand; Panel Unit Root Test; Panel Cointergration Test; long-run relationship;

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References

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  1. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Modelling International Travel Demand from Singapore to Australia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-214, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  2. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
  4. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2008. "Empirical Analysis of the Money Demand Function in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(4), pages 1-15.
  5. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
  6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Miguel D. Ramirez, 2006. "A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Test of the Complementarity Hypothesis in the Mexican Case, 1960-2001," Working Papers 942, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  8. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
  9. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
  10. William Maloney & Gabriel V. Montes Rojas, 2005. "How elastic are sea, sand and sun? Dynamic panel estimates of the demand for tourism," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 277-280.
  11. Roberto Basile & Mauro Costantini & Sergio Destefanis, 2005. "Unit root and cointegration tests for cross-sectionally correlated panels. Estimating regional production functions," ISAE Working Papers 53, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  12. Naudé, Wim & Saayman, Andrea, 2005. "Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis," MPRA Paper 16479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
  14. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Modelling the Determinants of International Tourism Demand to Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0532, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
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Cited by:
  1. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2012. "Les déterminants de la demande touristique: le cas du Maroc
    [Determinants of tourism demand: the case of Morocco]
    ," MPRA Paper 39029, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2012.
  2. Komkrit Wongkhae & Songsak Sriboonchitta & Kanchana Choketaworn & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2012. "Does price matter? The FMOLS and DOLS estimation of industrial countries tourists outbound to four ASEAN countries," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 1(4), pages 107-128, December.
  3. repec:rom:campco:v:9:y:2013:i:1:p:220-234 is not listed on IDEAS

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