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The relationship between international tourism and economic growth: the case of Morocco and Tunisia

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  • Bouzahzah, Mohamed
  • El Menyari, Younesse

Abstract

This study proposes to examine the impact of tourism activity on the economic growth of Morocco and Tunisia. We contribute here to the empirical literature on the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis, by adopting the error correction model framework, the cointegration and Granger Causality tests between real tourism receipts, real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Morocco and Tunisia, for the annual period 1980-2010; two main results emerge from this analysis. First, contrary to the predictions of the TLG hypothesis, the Granger test results show that this hypothesis is only valid for short-term in the two countries of Maghreb. Second, the results show that in the long term, there is a strong unidirectional causality from economic growth to international tourism receipts.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44102.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44102

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Keywords: TLG hypothesis; tourism receipts; economic growth; cointegration; Granger causality; Morocco and Tunisia;

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  1. Salih Katircioglu, 2009. "Tourism, trade and growth: the case of Cyprus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2741-2750.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  3. Chen, Lein Lein & Devereux, John, 1999. "Tourism and Welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Theoretical Analysis," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(2), pages 209-27, July.
  4. Krueger, Anne O, 1980. "Trade Policy as an Input to Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 288-92, May.
  5. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  6. Bouzahzah, Mohamed & El Menyari, Younesse, 2012. "Les déterminants de la demande touristique: le cas du Maroc
    [Determinants of tourism demand: the case of Morocco]
    ," MPRA Paper 39029, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2012.
  7. Tiago Neves Sequeira & Carla Campos, 2005. "International Tourism and Economic Growth: a Panel Data Approach," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2005.141, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  9. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
  10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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