Is Monetary Policy a Growth Stimulant in Nigeria? A Vector Autoregressive Approach
AbstractThis paper critically examines the dynamic interaction between monetary policy tools in stimulating economic growth, as well as stabilizing the economy from external shocks in Nigeria. The paper considered key monetary time series variables and real growth of output in formulating Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models which showed interdependence interaction between the period of 1970 and 2007. The time series properties of the selected variables are examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and the results revealed that only growth of real output and broad money supply are stationary at levels, while saving, lending and exchange rates were found stationary at first difference. The long-run dynamic interaction was established through the Johansen’s Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue tests. The pair-wise Granger-Causality test conducted showed that the growth rate of real output is not a leading indicator for any monetary variables. Other innovation accounting tests were also carried out like impulse responses function to test for the response of growth in real output to innovation shock on monetary variables. Also, the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is used to decompose the monetary shock on the growth rate of real output in Nigeria. Proper policy recommendations were proffered based on the results emanated from the econometric analyses.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35844.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Monetary policy; Monetary Instruments; Economic growth; VAR; Impulse shock response; Variance decomposition;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2012-01-25 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2012-01-25 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-01-25 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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