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Sectoral Linkages; Identifying the Key Growth Stimulating Sector of the Pakistan Economy

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  • Rashid, Abdul

Abstract

This paper investigates growth linkages among agriculture, industry and different segments of the service sector with a view to identifying the main growth stimulating sector with the highest level of backward and forward linkages in the economy. Time series data is used for the period 1971 to 2002. We estimate growth linkages through OLS regression analysis, also the Granger causality test is used to determine the direction of causality between growth of the different sectors of the economy for Pakistan. Our results suggest that the industrial sector plays an important role in determining the overall growth rate of the economy. The industrial GDP growth rate and service sector GDP growth rate both cause the growth rate of agricultural GDP. This verifies the neoclassical arguments that the higher productivity techniques in industry, (particularly in manufacturing) tend to spill over to agriculture, so encouraging convergent tendencies in sectoral productivity levels.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 27210.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2004
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Publication status: Published in Pakistan Business Review 1.6(2004): pp. 10-39
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27210

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Keywords: Growth; Sectoral Linkages; Pakistan;

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  1. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
  5. Sangeeta Dhawan & K. K. Saxena, 1992. "Sectoral Linkages and Key Sectors of the Indian Economy," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 195-210, July.
  6. Dowrick, Steve, 1989. "Sectoral change, catching up and slowing down : OECD post-war economic growth revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 331-335, December.
  7. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1980. "Selection of Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 331-54, June.
  8. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1.
  9. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "The General Equivalence of Granger and Sims Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 569-81, May.
  10. Storm, Servaas, 1997. "Domestic constraints on export-led growth: a case-study of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 83-119, February.
  11. Hazari, Bharat R, 1970. "Empirical Identification of Key Sectors in the Indian Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(3), pages 301-05, August.
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