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Optimal auditing with scoring: theory and application to insurance fraud

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Author Info
Dionne, Georges
Giuliano, Florence
Picard, Pierre

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Abstract

This article makes a bridge between the theory of optimal auditing and the scoring methodology in an asymmetric information setting. Our application is meant for insurance claims fraud, but it can be applied to many other activities that use the scoring approach. Fraud signals are classified based on the degree to which they reveal an increasing probability of fraud. We show that the optimal auditing strategy takes the form of a “Red Flags Strategy” which consists in referring claims to a Special Investigative Unit (SIU) when certain fraud indicators are observed. The auditing policy acts as a deterrence device and we explain why it requires the commitment of the insurer and how it should affect the incentives of SIU staffs. The characterization of the optimal auditing strategy is robust to some degree of signal manipulation by defrauders as well as to the imperfect information of defrauders about the audit frequency. The model is calibrated with data from a large European insurance company. We show that it is possible to improve our results by separating different groups of insureds with different moral costs of fraud. Finally, our results indicate how the deterrence effect of the audit scheme can be taken into account and how it affects the optimal auditing strategy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18374.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Publication status: Published in Management Science 1.55(2009): pp. 58-70
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18374

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Related research
Keywords: Audit; scoring; insurance fraud; red flags strategy; fraud indicators; suspicion index; moral cost of fraud; deterrence effect; signal manipulation.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D0 - Microeconomics - - General
G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies
C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. M. Martin Boyer, 2004. "Overcompensation as a Partial Solution to Commitment and Renegotiation Problems: The Case of "Ex Post" Moral Hazard," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 559-582. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Picard, Pierre, 1996. "Auditing claims in the insurance market with fraud: The credibility issue," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 27-56, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. El Bachir Belhadji & George Dionne & Faouzi Tarkhani, 2000. "A Model for the Detection of Insurance Fraud*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 517-538, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Knowles & Nicola Persico & Petra Todd, 2001. "Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(1), pages 203-232, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. G. Dionne, 2000. "The Empirical Measure of Information Problems with Emphasis on Insurance Fraud," THEMA Working Papers 2000-20, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    Other versions:
  6. Nahum D. Melumad & Dilip Mookherjee, 1989. "Delegation as Commitment: The Case of Income Tax Audits," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 20(2), pages 139-163, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dionne, Georges & Artis, Manuel & Guillen, Montserrat, 1996. "Count data models for a credit scoring system," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 303-325, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Crocker, Keith J & Tennyson, Sharon, 2002. "Insurance Fraud and Optimal Claims Settlement Strategies," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 469-507, October.
  9. Dionne, G. & St-Michel, P. & Gibbens, A., 1993. "An Economic Analysis of Insurance Fraud," Cahiers de recherche 93010, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  10. Townsend, Robert M., 1988. "Information constrained insurance : The revelation principle extended," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 411-450. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert Townsend, 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Staff Report 45, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Georges Dionne & Robert Gagné, 2001. "Deductible Contracts Against Fraudulent Claims: Evidence From Automobile Insurance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 290-301, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Dionne, Georges & Gagne, Robert, 2002. " Replacement Cost Endorsement and Opportunistic Fraud in Automobile Insurance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 213-30, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Gale, Douglas & Hellwig, Martin, 1985. "Incentive-Compatible Debt Contracts: The One-Period Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 647-63, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Nicola Persico, 2002. "Racial Profiling, Fairness, and Effectiveness of Policing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1472-1497, December. [Downloadable!]
  16. Beneish, Messod D., 1997. "Detecting GAAP violation: implications for assessing earnings management among firms with extreme financial performance," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 271-309. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Peter Ove Christensen, 2002. "Accounting Policies in Agencies with Moral Hazard and Renegotiation," Journal of Accounting Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 1071-1090, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. P. Picard, 1996. "On the Design of Optimal Insurance Policies under Manipulation of Audit Cost," THEMA Working Papers 96-20, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
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  19. Kofman, Fred & Lawarree, Jacques, 1993. "Collusion in Hierarchical Agency," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 629-56, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Mookherjee, Dilip & Png, Ivan, 1989. "Optimal Auditing, Insurance, and Redistribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 399-415, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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