Count data models for a credit scoring system
AbstractCredit scoring systems created for the evaluation of new applications are based on the available statistical information which is related to the behaviour of former clients with credit. Usually, financial institutions apply discriminant analysis techniques to create these systems but they lack of good properties due, for example, to the presence of non-normal variables. As an alternative, the future repayment behaviour is predicted by means of the expected number of unpaid instalments. The use of this latter variable suggests that appropriate models might be of interest, in which some covariant exogenous variables are included in order to specify the expected level of debt. At this point, prepayment is not explicitly considered. These models should be used as explanatory tools when evaluating the level of risk involved in personal credit transactions. Negative Binomial Distribution models are suitable when heterogeneity is taken into account. Some results related to prediction performance are shown for different model specifications in the case of data from a Spanish bank.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.
Volume (Year): 3 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Grogger, J T & Carson, Richard T, 1991. "Models for Truncated Counts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 225-38, July-Sept.
- Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984.
"Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship,"
Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-38, July.
- Jerry A. Hausman & Bronwyn H. Hall & Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," NBER Technical Working Papers 0017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
- Fourgeaud Claude & Gourieroux Christian & Pradel Jacqueline, 1990. "Sélection de clientèle et tarification de prêt bancaire," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9004, CEPREMAP.
- Rose, Nancy L, 1990. "Profitability and Product Quality: Economic Determinants of Airline Safety Performance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 944-64, October.
- Dionne, G. & Doherty, N.A., 1993.
"Adverse Selection, Commitment and Renegotiation: Extension to and Evidence from Insurance Markets,"
9301, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
- Dionne, Georges & Doherty, Neil A, 1994. "Adverse Selection, Commitment, and Renegotiation: Extension to and Evidence from Insurance Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 209-35, April.
- Dionne, G. & Doherty, N., 1991. "Adverse Selection, Commitment and Renegotiation : Extention to and Evidence From Insurance Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9134, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Dionne, G. & Doherty, N., 1991. "Adverse Selection, Commitment and Renegotiation : Extention to and Evidence From Insurance Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9134, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1981.
"Pseudo maximum likelihood methods : theory,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
- Dionne, G. & Gagne, R. & Gagnon, F. & Vanasse, C., 1993.
"Debt, Moral Hazard and Airline Safety : An Empirical Evidence,"
Cahiers de recherche
9309, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Dionne, Georges & Gagne, Robert & Gagnon, Francois & Vanasse, Charles, 1997. "Debt, moral hazard and airline safety An empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 379-402, August.
- Dionne, G. & Gagne, R. & Gagnon, F. & Vanasse, C., 1994. "Debts, moral hazard and airline safety : an empirica evidence," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9419, CEPREMAP.
- Fenn, Paul T, 1981. "Sickness Duration, Residual Disability, and Income Replacement: An Empirical Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 158-73, March.
- Steenackers, A. & Goovaerts, M. J., 1989. "A credit scoring model for personal loans," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 31-34, March.
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1982.
"Pseudo maximum lilelihood methods : applications to poisson models,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-20, May.
- Boyd, J.h. & Smith, B.D., 1991.
"The Equilibrium Allocation of Investment Capital in the Presence of Adverse Selection and Costly State Verification,"
RCER Working Papers
289, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Boyd, John H & Smith, Bruce D, 1993. "The Equilibrium Allocation of Investment Capital in the Presence of Adverse Selection and Costly State Verification," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 427-51, July.
- Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
- Crocker, Keith J & Snow, Arthur, 1986. "The Efficiency Effects of Categorical Discrimination in the Insurance Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 321-44, April.
- Mullahy, John, 1986. "Specification and testing of some modified count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-365, December.
- Jaffee, Dwight M & Russell, Thomas, 1976. "Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 651-66, November.
- Dionne, Georges & Giuliano, Florence & Picard, Pierre, 2009.
"Optimal auditing with scoring: theory and application to insurance fraud,"
18374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Georges Dionne & Florence Giuliano & Pierre Picard, 2009. "Optimal Auditing with Scoring: Theory and Application to Insurance Fraud," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 58-70, January.
- Georges Dionne & Florence Giuliano & Pierre Picard, 2005. "Optimal Auditing with Scoring Theory and Application to Insurance Fraud," Working Papers hal-00243026, HAL.
- J. M. R. Murteira & Joao M. C. Santos Silva, 2000.
"Estimation of Default Probabilities Using Incomplete Contracts Data,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1121, Econometric Society.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Murteira, J.M.R., 2009. "Estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 457-465, June.
- Elmas Yaldiz Hanedar & Eleonora Broccardo & Flavio Bazzana, 2012. "Collateral Requirements of SMEs:The Evidence from Less–Developed Countries," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 12111, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".
- Woo, Mi-Ja & Sriram, T.N., 2007. "Robust estimation of mixture complexity for count data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4379-4392, May.
- Marshall, Andrew & Tang, Leilei & Milne, Alistair, 2010. "Variable reduction, sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 501-512, June.
- Murray Smith, 2003. "On dependency in double-hurdle models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 581-595, October.
- Ulrich Kaiser & Andrea Szczesny, 2000. "Einfache oekonomische Verfahren fuer die Kreditrisikomessung," CoFE Discussion Paper 00-28, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
- Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2001. "Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 717-739, April.
- Kasper Roszbach, 2004.
"Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring, and the Survival of Loans,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 946-958, November.
- Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and the Survival of Loans," Working Paper Series 154, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Roszbach, Kasper, 1998. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and the Survival of Loans," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 261, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Artis, Manuel & Ayuso, Mercedes & Guillen, Montserrat, 1999. "Modelling different types of automobile insurance fraud behaviour in the Spanish market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 67-81, March.
- G. Dionne & F. Giuliano & P. Picard, 2002.
"Optimal auditing for insurance fraud,"
THEMA Working Papers
2002-32, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.