Variable reduction, sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring
AbstractThis paper investigates the effect of including the customer loan approval process to the estimation of loan performance and explores the influence of sample selection bias in predicting the probability of default. The bootstrap variable reduction technique is applied to reduce the variable dimension for a large data-set drawn from a major UK retail bank. The results show a statistically significant correlation between the loan approval and performance processes. We further demonstrate an economically significant improvement in forecasting performance when taking into account sample selection bias. We conclude that financial institutions can obtain benefits by correcting for sample selection bias in their credit scoring models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.
Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin
Bootstrap variable selection Credit scoring Loan performance forecasting Sample selection bias;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sharpe, Steven A, 1990.
" Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1069-87, September.
- Steven A. Sharpe, 1989. "Asymmetric information, bank lending, and implicit contracts: a stylized model of customer relationships," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 70, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Roszbach, Kasper, 2003.
"Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and the Survival of Loans,"
Working Paper Series
154, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Kasper Roszbach, 2004. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring, and the Survival of Loans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 946-958, November.
- Roszbach, Kasper, 1998. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and the Survival of Loans," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 261, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 1998.
"Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and Value at Risk,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
260, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Bank lending policy, credit scoring and value-at-risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 615-633, April.
- Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 1998. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and Value at Risk," Working Paper Series 68, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Francis Vella, 1998. "Estimating Models with Sample Selection Bias: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 127-169.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Murteira, J.M.R., 2009.
"Estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 457-465, June.
- J. M. R. Murteira & Joao M. C. Santos Silva, 2000. "Estimation of Default Probabilities Using Incomplete Contracts Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1121, Econometric Society.
- Montserrat Guillen & Manuel Artis, 1994.
"Count Data Models For A Credit Scoring System,"
Risk and Insurance
- Kanatas, George, 1987. "Commercial paper, bank reserve requirements, and the informational role of loan commitments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 425-448, September.
- Thomas, Lyn C., 2000. "A survey of credit and behavioural scoring: forecasting financial risk of lending to consumers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 149-172.
- Dinh, Thi Huyen Thanh & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2007. "A credit scoring model for Vietnam's retail banking market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 471-495.
- Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
- Blochlinger, Andreas & Leippold, Markus, 2006. "Economic benefit of powerful credit scoring," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 851-873, March.
- Bücker, Michael & van Kampen, Maarten & Krämer, Walter, 2013. "Reject inference in consumer credit scoring with nonignorable missing data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1040-1045.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.